It was apparent from the outset that the cohesion within the INDIA bloc was fragile, with its disintegration inevitable. The precise moment of unraveling remained uncertain.
The fundamental flaw lay in its genesis as a post-election alliance masquerading as a pre-election coalition. While forging pre-election alliances might pose initial challenges, the true test lies in navigating seat-sharing agreements and selecting a leader.
In such alliances, post-election dynamics favor the party with a greater seat tally, effectively granting them leverage. In the case of the INDIA bloc, the Congress, as the largest constituent, was expected to make significant concessions.
Now, on the cusp of the 2024 elections, cracks are surfacing. The partition of the INDIA bloc has commenced, commencing with Bengal and Punjab's withdrawal.
The dissolution of Nitish Kumar's JD(U) from Lalu Yadav's RJD in Bihar suggests that the state might witness the latest and perhaps final episode of this disintegration.
Following electoral setbacks in the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress found itself in dire need of presenting a viable alternative to the electorate. Thus, the INDIA bloc emerged, more as a strategic maneuver than a cohesive alliance.
"In reality, the Congress lacked the strength to directly challenge the BJP. The alliance, at least, provided some semblance of hope," observed author and political analyst Rasheed Kidwai.
Presently governing just three states - Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana - the Congress is under mounting pressure to secure favorable seat-sharing arrangements.
The battleground spans 13 states where the Congress confronts the BJP directly and engages in non-BJP confrontations in four additional states. However, the real litmus test lies in the nine states where Congress must negotiate with its INDIA partners.
From the outset, the Congress's seat-sharing negotiations were destined for challenges, given formidable regional players like the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, Mamata Banerjee in West Bengal, and a resurgent AAP in Delhi and Punjab.
The recent unraveling of the INDIA bloc contradicts the earlier promise of uprooting the BJP, now evident in its own fragmentation. The fissures within the opposition alliance are becoming increasingly apparent, notably in critical states like West Bengal and Punjab.
On January 24, Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee declared her party's decision to contest the state's Lok Sabha elections independently.
Citing failed seat-sharing discussions with the Congress, Banerjee announced TMC's intention to contest all 42 seats in Bengal for the 2024 general elections.
"The Congress rejected all my proposals," Banerjee lamented. "Subsequently, we opted to go it alone in Bengal."
This announcement followed a day after Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury labeled Banerjee an opportunist, asserting the party's intent to contest the elections sans TMC's support.
Reportedly, TMC offered Congress only two seats, leading to a sharp disagreement. Frustrated by Congress's indecision and internal strife, Banerjee opted to contest all seats in Bengal.
Despite Rahul Gandhi's efforts to ease tensions, Banerjee remained steadfast in her decision.
Similarly, in Punjab, the alliance between Congress and AAP encountered obstacles, with Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann confidently asserting AAP's potential to claim all 13 Lok Sabha seats in the state, distancing itself from Congress.
"In Punjab, we have no intentions to ally with the Congress. We stand independently," declared AAP leader and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann, shortly after Banerjee's solo stance.
AAP expresses confidence in securing all 13 Lok Sabha seats in Punjab.
While the Congress clinched eight seats in Punjab in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, AAP's landslide victory in the 2022 assembly polls, securing 92 out of 117 seats, overshadowed Congress's performance, managing only 18 seats.
The marked contrast in electoral outcomes complicates discussions on seat-sharing between the two parties.
The Punjab seat-sharing deadlock has wider ramifications for Delhi and Haryana. As AAP and Congress engage in negotiations in Delhi, where BJP currently holds all seats, challenges emerge in Haryana due to Congress's robust presence. Both state units resist any potential alliance, further complicating the opposition's unity efforts.
Ultimately, Congress bears the brunt of the blame. In Bihar, Nitish Kumar's JD(U) aligning with BJP deals a morale blow to the INDIA bloc, potentially marking its final disintegration.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav attributes the alliance's debacle to Congress's inadequacies amid Nitish Kumar's anticipated departure.
"Congress should have demonstrated more initiative. The enthusiasm required for engaging with the INDIA alliance was lacking," Akhilesh Yadav remarked in an exclusive interview with India Today TV.
More than challenging the BJP, INDIA bloc members grapple with internal strife.
INDIA, formed by 28 Indian political parties a few months ago to oust BJP in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, now grapples with internal disunity. Bengal and Punjab serve as harbingers of its fragmentation.
