The ongoing saga of uncertainty between the Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), erstwhile allies in Bihar since 2022, has been a brewing storm for some time now. A retrospective analysis of events reveals the genesis of the recent discord between these two formidable political entities in Bihar.
The atmosphere in Bihar is rife with speculation, evoking a game of speculation, as Chief Minister Nitish Kumar's potential reintegration with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is contemplated amidst a renewed strain in relations between the JD(U) and RJD, the incumbent coalition partners. This unease within the partnership, forged with some trepidation since 2022, has been palpable for a while, reaching a climactic zenith this week, punctuated by a verbal sparring match between the two factions following the posthumous conferral of the Bharat Ratna upon socialist luminary Karpoori Thakur by the central government.
Fueling the conjecture further was Kumar's recent audience with Governor Rajendra Viswanath Arlekar, prompting former Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi to cryptically remark, 'Khela Hobe' (something will happen).
Kumar's history of political oscillation is well-documented. In 2013, he severed ties with the BJP only to laterally with the RJD and Congress. Subsequently, after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, he once again aligned with the BJP in 2020, securing the chief ministerial position. Two years later, he pivoted away from the BJP to forge an alliance with the RJD and Congress.
While the next move in Nitish Kumar's political chess game remains shrouded in uncertainty, as he is reputed for his astute political acumen, it is imperative to dissect the chain of events that have led to the rupture within the Mahagathbandhan coalition.
The fissure became glaringly evident on Thursday when Nitish Kumar, in a thinly veiled swipe at the RJD, asserted that the JD(U) adheres to the ethos espoused by the late Karpoori Thakur, refraining from promoting familial interests. Addressing an event commemorating Thakur's birth anniversary, Kumar expressed gratitude to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for posthumously honoring the socialist stalwart with the Bharat Ratna, while subtly admonishing dynastic politics.
The appointment of RJD supremo Lalu Prasad's younger son Tejashwi Yadav as the deputy CM of Bihar, along with his elder son Tej Pratap's ministerial role in the government, served as a catalyst for this divergence of ideologies.
Though senior RJD leaders remained reticent, Lalu Prasad's daughter Rohini Acharya indirectly admonished the CM, insinuating in a now-deleted social media post, "People often cannot see their own shortcomings but continue to throw mud at others with impudence."
In the political milieu of Bihar, mobilizing the Other Backward Classes (OBC) vote is pivotal to electoral success. To court this crucial demographic, Nitish Kumar announced a caste census in 2023, revealing that 36% of Bihar's populace belongs to lower OBC castes. Furthermore, in November 2023, the Bihar government ratified legislation amplifying reservation quotas for scheduled castes and extremely backward castes.
However, the BJP endeavored to overshadow Kumar's caste-centric stratagem by commemorating 'Jannayak' Karpoori Thakur with the Bharat Ratna, extolling his advocacy for reservation policies during his tenure—a move hailed by BJP leaders as a strategic countermeasure against Nitish's reservation agenda.
Moreover, despite the Congress leveraging the caste census issue as a cornerstone of its campaign strategy in recent elections, its resonance in the Hindi heartland proved lackluster, leaving Nitish Kumar bereft of a substantial platform to confront the BJP in the impending 2024 general elections.
The friction between JD(U) and RJD was initially discernible when Rajiv Ranjan Singh alias Lalan Singh was unceremoniously relieved of his duties as JD(U) president in December, with Nitish Kumar assuming the mantle. While the party attributed this transition to Singh's imperative focus on the impending Lok Sabha polls, insiders divulged a deeper motive stemming from Singh's burgeoning rapport with the RJD.
In a bid to curry favor with Lalu Prasad, Singh purportedly advocated for Kumar's abdication of leadership in favor of Tejashwi Yadav. However, Kumar rebuffed this proposition. Subsequently, a clandestine agreement materialized between Singh and Lalu Prasad, wherein Singh purportedly pledged to engineer the defection of approximately 12 JD(U) MLAs to fortify Tejashwi Yadav's prospects of forming a government independently. In return, Singh sought a passage to the Rajya Sabha courtesy of the RJD.
However, Nitish Kumar, apprised of Singh's clandestine machinations, promptly ousted him from his position before his scheming could fructify.
Undoubtedly, Nitish Kumar was the driving force behind the formation of the INDIA bloc, traversing the expanse of the nation to forge alliances with various opposition leaders in a concerted effort to confront the BJP collectively. Notably, Kumar convened the inaugural Opposition conclave in Patna, harboring aspirations of assuming the mantle of Prime Minister.
Nevertheless, Kumar purportedly felt slighted and ostracized when INDIA bloc allies floated the candidacy of Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge for the premiership, sparking resentment and disillusionment within his ranks.
