At the India Today Conclave 2024, psephologists and poll experts deliberated on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ambitious target of securing 400 Lok Sabha seats for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in the upcoming elections. While acknowledging the feasibility of PM Modi's goal, they highlighted the challenges posed by regional parties and the imperative for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to consolidate its strongholds while making headway in challenging territories, particularly in the eastern and southern states.
Pradeep Gupta, chairperson of Axis My India, outlined the strategy for achieving this target, stressing the importance of maintaining high strike rates in stronghold states like Maharashtra, Bihar, and Karnataka. However, he cautioned against complacency, citing the emergence of alliances and the BJP's defeat in Karnataka's 2023 Assembly polls. In states like Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal, where the BJP secured a significant vote share but fell short of PM Modi's target, Gupta emphasized the need for improvement to achieve an 80% strike rate. The most formidable challenge lies in states like Tamil Nadu and Punjab, where the BJP relies on alliances, posing a formidable obstacle to its electoral ambitions.
Election strategist Amitab Tiwari echoed these sentiments, underscoring the BJP's anticipated struggles in the eastern and southern regions. He categorized states based on the BJP's performance, identifying northern regions as safer territories and urging the party to concentrate its efforts elsewhere to surpass the 400-seat mark.
Yashwant Deshmukh, director of C-Voter, predicted intense battles with regional parties rather than the Congress, particularly in seats where the BJP's vote share was historically low. He emphasized the significance of contests between the BJP and regional players, highlighting Bihar, Maharashtra, and West Bengal as key battlegrounds.
BJP Rajya Sabha MP Narasimha Rao expressed confidence in the BJP's sweeping victory, asserting that the winner had been predetermined before the election dates were announced. He projected a substantial increase in BJP's seat tally, citing the decimation of the opposition and the allure of the saffron camp for political aspirants.
Overall, while PM Modi's target of 400 seats for the NDA presents a formidable challenge, experts underscored the BJP's need to navigate complex regional dynamics and fortify its electoral foothold to realize this ambitious goal.
