The sustained negotiations between India and China regarding their long-standing border disputes have recently culminated in a significant agreement, leading to a much-anticipated bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This diplomatic engagement marks a notable milestone, particularly in light of the contrasting approach India has adopted towards China compared to its stance on Pakistan. The complexity and nuance of these relationships shed light on the intricate dynamics of international diplomacy in the region.
In October 2019, as President Xi arrived in Chennai aboard his special Boeing 747 for discussions with Modi, few could have predicted that it would take five long years before the two leaders would meet again. The geopolitical landscape has shifted considerably since then, fraught with tensions that peaked after the violent clashes in Galwan Valley in 2020, which tragically resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers, including Colonel Santosh Babu, the commanding officer of the 16th Battalion of the Bihar Regiment. This incident marked a significant low point in Sino-Indian relations, prompting both nations to reassess their strategies regarding border security and diplomatic engagement.
This week, in Kazan, Russia, Modi and Xi finally convened for a bilateral meeting, a much-awaited event that reflects a thaw in relations brought about by recent agreements regarding border patrolling in Eastern Ladakh. On the eve of the BRICS summit, which Modi attended, Foreign Secretary Vikas Misry announced that India and China had successfully reached an agreement concerning patrolling along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh, leading to a process of disengagement between the two militaries. This breakthrough is particularly significant as it followed months of intense negotiations and multiple meetings among diplomats and military officials from both nations, signaling a potential path towards greater stability in their interactions.
In stark contrast to this renewed engagement with China, India's diplomatic posture towards Pakistan has remained markedly different. Following the devastating Pulwama terror attack in 2019, which resulted in the deaths of 40 CRPF personnel, India severed diplomatic ties with Pakistan, resulting in a prolonged freeze in bilateral relations. Since that critical moment, no high-level bilateral meetings between Indian and Pakistani leaders have occurred. Although External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attended the recent Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Islamabad, he did not engage in any official bilateral discussions with Pakistani officials, further underscoring the current state of diplomatic isolation.
Several factors contribute to India's strategic reorientation of its ties with China, contrasting sharply with its stance towards Pakistan. One significant aspect is the convergence on economic issues between India and China, which has seen an upward trajectory despite prevailing tensions. Bilateral trade between the two nations has experienced a remarkable upswing over the years. When Modi assumed office in 2014, trade between India and China stood at approximately $71.66 billion. By 2023-24, this figure surged to around $118.4 billion, positioning China as India’s largest trading partner, even surpassing the United States. This burgeoning trade relationship indicates a complex interdependence that cannot be overlooked in discussions about diplomatic relations.
The Economic Survey for the current year underscored the necessity for increasing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China, which is seen as vital for enhancing India's participation in global supply chains and boosting exports. The report highlighted that leveraging the "China plus one" strategy would be advantageous, suggesting that India should either integrate into Chinese supply chains or attract Chinese FDI to bolster exports to markets like the U.S., as other East Asian economies have successfully done in the past. Such a strategy not only aims to diversify India's economic partnerships but also seeks to maximize the benefits of engagement with a major economic player.
Former diplomat K.C. Singh noted the challenges faced by the Chinese economy, which has recently encountered significant issues, including a crisis in the housing sector. This crisis has left 90 million empty housing units across the country, reflecting the broader economic malaise. This situation, combined with declining housing prices and a drop in industrial income, has made the Indian market increasingly appealing for Chinese investments. Singh emphasized that, given the current geopolitical climate, the Indian market's significance has grown, compelling China to reconsider its approach and engage more constructively with India.
In contrast, India perceives limited potential for economic cooperation with Pakistan. Following the revocation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir, Pakistan severed trade ties with India. While Pakistan seeks to alleviate food inflation, which soared to 31% in October 2023, it lacks the economic resources to engage meaningfully with India. Factors such as Pakistan's export of terrorism, political instability, and its inability to transact in U.S. dollars due to a foreign currency crisis contribute to India's reluctance to revive economic ties. The stark economic realities facing Pakistan create a situation where India finds little incentive to pursue a diplomatic thaw.
While China presents its own set of challenges, including an expansionist approach that raises security concerns for India, the ability to engage in discussions regarding border issues allows for continued dialogue, even after incidents of violence like the Galwan clashes. In contrast, Pakistan's reliance on terrorism as a key component of its foreign policy has created a substantial trust deficit, making constructive dialogue almost impossible. India's frustrations with Pakistan's history of violence and betrayal of peace initiatives have deepened this divide, as evidenced by calls for accountability at international forums like the United Nations.
The complexities of engaging with Pakistan stem from its intricate political landscape, where military influence often undermines civilian leadership. Despite past attempts at engagement, such as Modi’s invitations to Pakistan's leaders during his swearing-in ceremony and his surprise visit to Pakistan in December 2015, ongoing attacks and terrorism from Pakistani soil have derailed progress and exacerbated tensions. The repeated instances of violence, including deadly attacks on military installations, have pushed India to adopt a more hardline approach, emphasizing the need for robust security measures rather than diplomatic overtures.
In conclusion, while there is cautious optimism following the recent breakthrough in eastern Ladakh between India and China, experts caution against naivety regarding China’s motivations. The contrasting approaches India has adopted towards China and Pakistan reflect a nuanced understanding of each country’s geopolitical significance and the complexities of their respective relationships with India. As India navigates this intricate landscape, the ability to leverage economic necessities while maintaining a firm stance on security will be crucial in shaping the future of its diplomatic engagements. The diverging paths taken by India in its dealings with China and Pakistan reveal the multifaceted nature of international relations, where economic interests, security concerns, and historical grievances play pivotal roles in shaping the contours of diplomacy. The ongoing dialogue with China may hold the potential for greater stability in the region, while the relationship with Pakistan remains fraught with challenges that necessitate a careful and strategic approach.
