As tensions between India and Pakistan escalate following the Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 Indian tourists, Pakistan has accused India of releasing water into the Jhelum River without prior notice, further straining the fragile situation. According to a report by Dunya News, a sudden surge in water levels was observed near Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) on Saturday, prompting authorities to declare a water emergency in Hattian Bala, an area roughly 40 kilometers from Muzaffarabad along the riverbanks. Residents were urgently warned through mosque announcements, creating widespread panic among local communities.
Pakistani officials have condemned the alleged sudden release, calling it a “complete violation of international rules and water agreements.” This accusation comes just after India formally announced the suspension of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark agreement that had survived multiple wars and political crises between the two nations. India stated that the suspension would remain until Pakistan "credibly and irreversibly" ceases its support for cross-border terrorism, pointing directly to Pakistan-based terrorists as responsible for the Pahalgam attack.
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank, had granted Pakistan rights over the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab—while India retained control over the eastern rivers—Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. Even during previous periods of extreme hostility, the treaty was respected by both sides, seen as a rare pillar of cooperation. However, the horror of the Pahalgam attack appears to have shattered that long-standing understanding.
The impact of India's suspension of the treaty could be severe for Pakistan. The country’s agriculture, which accounts for a large share of its economy, depends heavily, nearly 90%—on irrigation fed by the Indus River system. Disruption in water flow, or even the fear of such disruption, could cripple crop yields, increase food insecurity, and spark political and social unrest, particularly in Pakistan’s already water-stressed regions like Punjab and Sindh.
Moreover, one of India's responsibilities under the treaty was to share vital hydrological data with Pakistan, including flood warnings and information about river discharge and glacier melt. With this information flow now halted, Pakistan faces a heightened risk of both drought and unexpected flooding, without timely data to manage water resources properly. The sudden spike in the Jhelum River levels is a stark early warning of what could come if the suspension drags on.
The water crisis now adds another explosive layer to the already volatile situation between India and Pakistan, heightening fears of both humanitarian and security crises in the region.
