When will India be able to fully cut off Pakistan's supply? The Indus Treaty is on hold

India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) for the first time since it was signed in 1960, in direct response to Pakistan-backed terrorist attacks, including the latest massacre in Pahalgam. This is a big move because the IWT had survived even the wars of 1965, 1971, and 1999.

What it means right now:

• India will no longer share project information or allow inspections by Pakistan under the treaty.

• India can now flush dams, store more water, and build infrastructure freely on the three western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — without being constrained by treaty obligations.

• But India's ability to immediately stop or divert large volumes of water to hurt Pakistan is limited for now, because it doesn’t have enough big dams or storage structures ready yet.

• Projects like Pakal Dul, Ratle, Kiru, Sawalkot (under construction) and future ones can now be built faster without Pakistani interference, but it will still take 5–10 years to really shift the water flow dynamics.

Why the treaty was considered unfair:

• India got the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), but only 20% of the total water.

• Pakistan got control over the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) — about 80% of the water.

• Even India's use on western rivers was heavily restricted to "non-consumptive" activities (like run-of-the-river hydro projects, not full-fledged dams).

What India could do next:

• Short term: Reservoir flushing, stop notifying Pakistan about flood risks, store tiny amounts from existing dams.

• Medium term: Speed up ongoing hydroelectric projects to capture more flow.

• Long term: Build major storage reservoirs and diversion canals on the western rivers.

• Legally withdraw from the treaty altogether under Article 60 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, if India chooses to go down that road.

The stakes:

• Pakistan depends on the Indus system for 80% of its agriculture and 25% of its GDP.

• Any disruption, especially during the dry season, could cause huge water shortages and economic strain in Pakistan.

• For India, it could finally allow better use of river waters for its growing domestic water and energy needs.

In short:

India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty is not just symbolic — it’s the beginning of a long-term strategic shift in how India leverages its upstream position. It won't "turn off the tap" immediately, but over the next decade, Pakistan could face serious water vulnerabilities if India follows through aggressively.