India's decision to close the sluice gates of the Salal and Baglihar dams on the Chenab River has caused a record drop in water levels downstream in Pakistan, intensifying tensions between the two countries just days before nationwide civil defence drills in India. This move follows the Pahalgam terror attack, after which India indicated it may reconsider or suspend elements of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a landmark agreement that has governed river sharing since 1960.
According to data from Pakistan's Indus River System Authority (IRSA):
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Inflow into the Chenab at Marala fell from 29,675 cusecs on April 23 to 11,423 cusecs by May 5—a drop of 61%.
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Outflow dropped even more sharply, by 83%, from 21,675 cusecs to just 3,761 cusecs.
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These changes occurred shortly after India shut the gates of Salal and Baglihar dams for silt flushing and reservoir refilling, a routine monsoon-season activity advanced this year for strategic reasons.
While these dams are run-of-the-river projects and not designed to store large amounts of water permanently (as mandated by the IWT), their temporary holding capacity—up to 16 days during low-flow periods—allows India to modulate flow timing, especially when used in coordination with other upstream projects.
India has also accelerated work on four other major hydroelectric projects on the Chenab—Pakal Dul, Kiru, Kwar, and Ratle—which, once operational, will significantly enhance India’s capacity to control seasonal flows. An IUCN assessment suggests these projects could allow India to exert substantial influence over Chenab's downstream timing, particularly during dry seasons like Rabi.
Pakistan, which relies heavily on the Chenab’s waters for irrigation in Punjab province, is already facing a 21% shortfall for its Kharif crops. IRSA officials have warned that if the reduced flow continues, they may need to cut water supply to farms by 20% or more, a major blow to the country's agriculture-dependent economy.
This escalation raises serious concerns about the future of the Indus Waters Treaty, long hailed as a rare success in India-Pakistan relations. If India moves toward using water as strategic leverage, it could invite diplomatic backlash and possibly trigger a reassessment of water security policies in both countries.
