Apple’s iPhone production and export landscape is clearly shifting, with India rapidly catching up to China as a major manufacturing hub. Between January and April 2025, Apple exported 13.2 million iPhones from China to the US, while India shipped 11.5 million during the same period. But the trend is even more revealing on a monthly basis: in April 2025, India overtook China for the first time, exporting about 3.3 million iPhones compared to China’s 900,000 units. This marks a significant milestone in Apple’s ongoing supply chain diversification.
According to Omdia’s market analysis, India’s iPhone shipments to the US rose sharply by 76% year-on-year in April, while shipments from China dropped by the same percentage. This dramatic shift aligns with ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies stemming from previous US administrations. Apple had anticipated such disruptions and invested heavily in India’s manufacturing capabilities during the COVID-19 pandemic, a strategy now paying dividends.
The surge in exports from India in March 2025 — about 4.4 million units — is believed to be linked to stockpiling ahead of the April 2 imposition of reciprocal tariffs by former US President Donald Trump, although iPhones were later exempted from these tariffs on April 11. Despite this, Apple’s commitment to India remains strong. CEO Tim Cook confirmed in May that most iPhones sold in the US will be manufactured in India going forward.
Tariff differences also play a role: iPhones imported from China face a 30% duty under Trump-era tariffs, while imports from India have a much lower 10% base tariff. This economic incentive supports Apple’s shift toward India, though analysts caution that India’s manufacturing infrastructure is still ramping up and cannot yet fully meet US demand, estimated at around 20 million iPhones per quarter. The ramp-up of manufacturing India, especially for high-end models like the iPhone 16 Pro, is recent and ongoing, with expectations that India will fully meet demand by around 2026.
Experts note that while final assembly is moving to India, much of the iPhone supply chain—including components and expertise—still relies heavily on China. The transition is relatively “low lift” for Apple because the final assembly step is easier to relocate than the entire supply chain.
This shift has drawn attention from governments. Trump recently threatened a 25% tariff on all iPhone imports unless they are made in the US, expressing frustration with production shifting abroad, including India. China is also reportedly trying to curb India’s rise by restricting access to critical high-tech equipment and skilled labor needed for iPhone manufacturing.
Despite these geopolitical and logistical hurdles, industry experts believe Apple will maintain its focus on India. Producing iPhones entirely in the US is considered unlikely, and India remains Apple’s primary path to diversify and future-proof its supply chain. Apple’s CEO Tim Cook is expected to continue negotiations with political leaders but stay committed to growing manufacturing in India.
In summary, Apple’s move to shift iPhone production from China to India is well underway, driven by trade policies, tariffs, and a strategic desire to diversify. India’s role is growing rapidly, though challenges remain. Over the next year or two, India is poised to become Apple’s dominant iPhone manufacturing hub, reshaping the global electronics supply chain landscape.
