As tensions with India intensify following the deadly Pahalgam terror attack, Pakistan’s military faces a significant operational crisis: a critical shortage of artillery ammunition that could severely impair its ability to sustain combat operations in the event of war.
According to ANI reports citing Indian intelligence sources, Pakistan’s warfighting capability in the face of high-intensity conflict would last only four days due to dwindling artillery reserves. This alarming gap stems from multiple factors:
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Diversion of 155mm artillery shells and other munitions to ongoing arms deals with Ukraine and Israel, which has reportedly drained existing stockpiles.
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The Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF)—tasked with replenishing military supplies—is struggling to ramp up production due to obsolete manufacturing infrastructure and global supply chain constraints.
This development directly undermines Pakistan’s long-standing military doctrine, which is based on swift, high-impact mobilisation to counterbalance India’s superior conventional military strength. But with insufficient 155mm shells for M109 howitzers and shortages of 122mm rockets for BM-21 Grad systems, Pakistan risks running out of ammunition in less than 96 hours of active combat.
Even as Pakistani leaders and ministers publicly threaten retaliation and warn of a nuclear response if provoked, internal assessments, including discussions at the Special Corps Commanders Conference on May 2, reflect a growing sense of alarm within the armed forces over these shortages.
The Pakistani military has reportedly taken precautionary steps by building ammunition depots along the India-Pakistan border, anticipating an Indian strike in response to the April 22 attack that left 26 tourists dead, including a Nepali national.
These vulnerabilities echo warnings previously issued by former Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, who had acknowledged that Pakistan lacks both the military and economic endurance to sustain a prolonged conventional war with India.
The discrepancy between Pakistan’s aggressive public posturing and its actual ground realities is raising concerns about its ability to deliver on its threats—or to control the consequences if a conflict spirals out of control.
