India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and the subsequent closure of gates at the Baglihar and Salal dams on the Chenab River appears to be having a tangible impact on Pakistan’s water availability, especially during the critical kharif crop sowing season.
Although India does not yet have the full infrastructure to significantly divert or retain large volumes of the Indus system’s water, the temporary closure of run-of-the-river dams for sediment flushing and refilling is enough to disturb the flow downstream, and that’s already causing panic in Pakistan’s agricultural heartland.
Key takeaways from the current situation:
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Severe Water Shortage in Pakistan:
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Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has warned of a 21% water shortage for the early kharif season (May–June 10).
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This comes atop an already existing 43% shortfall for April, compounding the crisis.
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The Chenab River, which supports cotton, paddy, maize, and sugarcane crops in Punjab, is nearly dry at some downstream points like Akhnoor.
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Indian Dam Operations Have Strategic Impact:
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While Baglihar and Salal are run-of-the-river projects (not violating IWT rules), the closure of gates for reservoir refilling post-silt flushing has effectively reduced water flow into Pakistan during a crucial period.
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These actions, while technically legal, send a strong geopolitical message and demonstrate India’s leverage under the treaty when provoked by terrorism.
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Limited Storage Capacity in Pakistan:
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With Tarbela, Mangla, and Chashma reservoirs already low, Pakistan has little buffer to handle water fluctuations.
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The effect is felt more sharply due to the timing—just as sowing begins in hot and dry conditions.
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Geopolitical Leverage:
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India’s position is that the IWT will remain in “abeyance” until Pakistan abjures cross-border terrorism.
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Pakistan, meanwhile, continues to deny responsibility and refuses to meet this condition, even as its agriculture and economy face the brunt of the fallout.
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Symbolic Shift in Policy:
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India’s long-standing restraint under the IWT—despite repeated provocations—has clearly shifted. The post-Pahalgam attack decisions show India is willing to use its rights under the treaty as a tool of pressure.
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In conclusion, even without building new infrastructure to block water, India has demonstrated the strategic power of operational control over existing projects. For Pakistan, this has exposed the fragility of its water security, especially under conditions of poor planning, reliance on a single river system, and persistent hostility toward India.
