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IMF Lifeline at Risk: Pakistan's attacks on India come at a time when it desperately needs a USD 2 billion tranche from the IMF. India is leveraging its position by raising the issue at the IMF board meeting on May 9, potentially jeopardizing Pakistan’s bailout.
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Economic Fragility: With external debt at $130 billion, 25 IMF loan programs since 1950, and chronic fiscal mismanagement, Pakistan’s economic foundations are severely weakened. Heavy military spending and low revenue generation further compound the problem.
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Loss of Diplomatic Shield: The US, historically a fallback for Pakistan in crises (e.g., Kargil 1999), has made a significant departure. Vice President JD Vance declared the conflict “none of our business,” signaling Washington’s neutrality and shift toward strategic alignment with India.
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Erosion of Allies: Aside from China, Turkey, and Azerbaijan, Pakistan finds few vocal backers. Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and UAE are maintaining neutral or subtly pro-India stances, leaving Pakistan diplomatically isolated.
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India’s Calculated Response: India’s Operation Sindoor, aimed at terror infrastructure, avoided civilian or military Pakistani targets — showing restraint and precision. In contrast, Pakistan’s retaliation targeted civilian and military zones, escalating the crisis and drawing global criticism.
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Internal Decay: With high inflation, youth emigration, suppressed democracy under military rule (Gen. Munir), and insurgency in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, Pakistan’s capacity for prolonged military engagement is highly limited.
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Geopolitical Shift: India’s post-Kargil doctrine of preemption and retaliation (2016 Uri, 2019 Balakot, and now 2025 Sindoor) underlines its refusal to remain passive. Pakistan’s reliance on the nuclear card and diplomatic mediation is fast losing efficacy.
In short, Pakistan’s escalation could cost it far more than it anticipated — economically, diplomatically, and militarily — at a moment when it can least afford it. Washington’s non-intervention signals a tectonic shift in regional geopolitics, one that might leave Islamabad out in the cold.
