In a move that could reshape India's political landscape, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stunned the Opposition—and perhaps even some within its own ranks—by announcing a nationwide caste census, the first such exercise in nearly a century. The announcement, made almost casually by Union Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw at the end of a Cabinet briefing, comes just months ahead of the critical Bihar Assembly elections, a state where caste politics runs deep.
Though understated in delivery, the implications of the move are seismic. For years, the demand for a caste-based census has been a rallying cry of Opposition parties, particularly the Congress, the Samajwadi Party, and regional outfits representing Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Dalits, and minorities. The decision to move ahead with such a count, after decades of political reluctance and ideological resistance, marks a watershed moment in India's approach to social justice, data-driven policymaking, and electoral strategy.
Opposition Caught Off Guard — Yet Claims Victory
The Opposition, initially blindsided by the announcement, quickly pivoted to claim moral and ideological victory. Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav was swift to declare that the move was a “100 per cent victory for PDA”—the party’s shorthand for Pichhde (OBCs), Dalits, and Alpsankhyak (minorities). Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, who has consistently championed the idea under the slogan “jitni aabadi, utna haq” (proportionate rights based on population), said in a press conference: “It is our vision which they have adopted.”
However, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) countered this narrative with sharp political messaging, accusing the Congress of hypocrisy. BJP spokespersons pointed to the long-standing resistance to caste enumeration by Congress governments, citing Jawaharlal Nehru’s 1961 speech where he warned against caste-based reservations potentially diminishing the meritocratic fabric of government service.
A Strategic Shift by Modi
Interestingly, Modi himself had echoed Nehruvian concerns during the 2024 Lok Sabha election campaign, mocking the demand for a caste census. At the time, he had said he recognized only four castes: the poor, women, youth, and farmers. But the political calculus appears to have changed after the BJP returned to power in 2024 without a clear majority, prompting a reassessment of its outreach to backward and marginalized communities.
According to sources, this policy shift followed a lengthy meeting between Modi and RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, signaling coordinated ideological recalibration between the BJP and its ideological parent. The subsequent meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs, which greenlit the caste enumeration, suggests that this decision is part of a larger political design—one that may well include delimitation of constituencies and implementation of the 33% Women’s Reservation Act, all feeding into the 2029 general elections strategy.
The Historical Context: From British Era to Today
Caste was formally recorded in every census from 1881 to 1931 during British rule. But post-Independence governments, including those led by the Congress, discontinued this practice, restricting enumeration to Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs). Even the 2011 Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC) under the UPA-II government, conducted under Dr Manmohan Singh, was never fully published—allegedly due to inconsistencies and problematic data classification.
The SECC had identified an implausibly high 46 lakh caste entries, far exceeding the 4,147 castes recorded in the 1931 census. This was due in part to respondents entering sub-caste identifiers like “Gupta” or “Agarwal” rather than umbrella categories like “Baniya”, complicating data aggregation and policy applications.
A More Sophisticated Enumeration
Learning from past missteps, the upcoming census will reportedly be fully digitized, with standardized caste codes presented via drop-down menus to avoid duplication and ambiguity. A pre-test survey will also be conducted to identify and address operational issues before the full rollout. The census will be conducted in two phases:
-
Phase I: Collects basic demographic data—gender, age, education, employment, income, housing, and asset ownership.
-
Phase II: Focuses on caste categorization and government scheme accessibility, helping the state better target welfare measures.
As one senior government official explained: “Despite the growth in welfare schemes, a lack of granular, reliable caste data often prevents targeted delivery. This census aims to fix that.”
Political Implications and BJP’s Social Engineering
The caste census offers the BJP not just a policy win but also a powerful political tool. The party has, over the past decade, cultivated support from non-dominant OBC groups and Pasmanda Muslims, portraying itself as a champion of the socially most marginalized while seeking to erode the traditional base of parties like the SP, RJD, and Congress.
With fresh caste data, the BJP could further recalibrate its welfare schemes and electoral messaging, enhancing its micro-targeting strategy. The census also sets the stage for delimitation of Lok Sabha and assembly seats, “frozen” since 1976. With population shifts and caste data in hand, the BJP could influence constituency boundaries, ensuring greater representation for northern and central India, where it enjoys strong support.
A Double-Edged Sword?
However, the move is not without risks. The caste census could reawaken long-simmering caste anxieties, demand for proportional reservations, and fuel political fragmentation. There is also the potential for internal contradictions—within the BJP, which has historically drawn on upper-caste leadership, and within the RSS, where caste-based politics has often been frowned upon.
Still, as the political dust settles, one thing is clear: with the caste census, Modi has once again seized control of the narrative, turning a long-standing Opposition demand into a weapon of political realignment—while forcing Rahul Gandhi and others to play catch-up.
