Tata Motors is poised to release its Q4 FY25 results today amid a backdrop of market caution and subdued expectations. Here's a concise breakdown of what analysts and brokerages are anticipating:
Stock Performance (Pre-Results)
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Opened at ₹720.55 on Tuesday.
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Dropped to ₹714.35, nearly 1% down, as investors awaited earnings.
Expected Financial Highlights
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Revenue:
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Expected to grow marginally by 1.2% YoY.
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Net Profit:
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Forecast to decline ~36% YoY, driven by:
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Higher depreciation
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Increased interest expenses
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Foreign exchange losses
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EBITDA Margin:
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Likely to contract 85 bps YoY, landing at 13.3%.
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Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) Outlook
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Volumes: Strong growth expected due to:
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Better semiconductor availability
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A robust order book
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Revenue: Estimated to grow by 6–7% YoY
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EBITDA Margin: May improve on:
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Higher average selling prices (ASP)
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Superior product mix
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Conflicting brokerage views:
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Nomura:
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ASP: GBP 69,500, 3% lower QoQ
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EBIT Margin: ~9.8% (vs. 9.0% in Q3)
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Free Cash Flow: GBP 1.1 billion
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On track to become net-debt-free
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Motilal Oswal:
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Volume growth: +3% YoY
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EBITDA margin may drop by 130 bps due to:
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Higher discounts
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Rising warranty costs
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🇮🇳 India Business Snapshot
Passenger Vehicles (PV)
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Volume: Down ~6% YoY
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EBITDA Margin:
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Motilal Oswal: Stable at 7.3%
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Kotak: Improved to 7.7% on:
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Better product mix
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Drop in battery prices
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PLI scheme support
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Caution: Gains might be offset by higher discounts
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Commercial Vehicles (CV)
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Volume: Down ~3% YoY
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EBITDA Margin:
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Expected improvement by 90 bps, signaling operational efficiency
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Overall View
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Mixed quarter anticipated:
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JLR performance helps topline
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But margin pressure persists from international costs and forex impact
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Nuvama expects:
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Flat revenue YoY
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EBITDA margin squeeze due to JLR drag, despite India margin resilience
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What to Watch in the Results:
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JLR ASP and margin movement
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Progress toward net-debt-free status
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Commentary on demand outlook, especially in Europe and China
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EV performance and benefits from PLI scheme
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Impact of discounting strategies in the domestic market
Final results will shape how markets react tomorrow, especially if actual margins or profitability deviate significantly from these cautious estimates.
