The announcement by the BJP-led central government to include caste enumeration in the long-delayed decadal Census has sparked intense political and public debate, not so much over the decision itself—which has been a long-standing demand by the Opposition, but over the timing of the move. Coming just days after the brutal April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that killed Indian soldiers, and amid calls for retribution, the decision has triggered four dominant interpretations:
1. Census Delay Was Already Pressing:
The decadal Census has been delayed since 2021 due to the pandemic and other logistical challenges. There was mounting pressure, especially from states like Bihar and Tamil Nadu, for the inclusion of caste data. The government insists the announcement is purely administrative. It is needed to enable delimitation and the 33% reservation for women—both dependent on updated population data. This explanation suggests the file was already in motion when the Pahalgam attack occurred, and the announcement was coincidental, not political.
2. Strategic Move Ahead of Bihar Elections:
Bihar is central to caste-based politics, and an upcoming Assembly election makes the timing crucial. In 2020, the NDA’s erosion of OBC/EBC support hurt its electoral prospects. With the Congress-led Opposition promising to remove the 50% cap on caste-based reservations, the BJP’s support for a caste census could neutralize this advantage and re-engage the backward caste voter base. The move came right after PM Modi met with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, who in 2015 had spoken against caste-based reservations—raising the possibility of recalibrated thinking within the Sangh Parivar ahead of the high-stakes Bihar polls.
3. Diversion from Pahalgam Response Criticism:
A strong section of critics and opposition leaders see the announcement as a "headline management" tactic meant to divert national focus from the rising anger over the Pahalgam terror attack and India's perceived lack of immediate retaliation. The government’s actions—like cancelling Pakistani visas and blocking trade—were seen as inadequate by some. The caste census announcement, they argue, changed the news cycle and distracted from demands for military action. Congress and AAP have explicitly accused the Modi government of using the caste census issue to deflect public attention.
4. Using Nationalism to Mute Caste Faultlines:
Some insiders close to the BJP believe the timing was calculated to ensure that any resentment from upper castes or social conservatives over a caste census would be muted under the larger wave of nationalistic unity post-Pahalgam. National grief and a sense of unity against terrorism could act as a political cushion against social divisions a caste census might provoke. This makes the moment opportune: the government satisfies a key OBC demand while minimizing potential backlash by doing so under the cover of a national security crisis.
In essence, while the caste census itself is a politically calculated move with potential long-term gains in states like Bihar, UP, and Maharashtra, it is the timing that reflects deeper strategy—balancing immediate optics, electoral considerations, and long-term demographic politics. Whether it was meant to distract, pacify, or simply proceed with governance amid crisis, it has certainly shifted the political discourse at a sensitive time.
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