American geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer has said that Russian President Vladimir Putin is deliberately prolonging the war in Ukraine, believing time is on his side, but recent developments—including a significant Ukrainian drone attack—have challenged that assumption. Speaking to India Today TV, Bremmer analyzed the changing dynamics of the war, the limits of Western diplomacy, and the growing frustration within global leadership, particularly from Donald Trump.
On Sunday, Ukraine launched its most damaging drone operation of the war so far—Operation Spider’s Web—targeting 41 Russian aircraft at airbases deep inside Russian territory. Bremmer called it a "strategic wake-up call" for Moscow. “What Ukrainians have shown Putin is that maybe he miscalculated. Maybe Russia won’t become the military superpower it believes it is if it continues this war,” he said.
Bremmer emphasized that Putin has resisted all meaningful steps toward peace. “He hasn’t faced serious domestic consequences despite over a million Russian casualties. He doesn’t value the lives of his own citizens the way most leaders would,” he noted. According to Bremmer, Putin continues to believe that dragging the war on will eventually exhaust Ukraine and its backers.
Despite growing international calls for peace, Bremmer noted that Russia and Ukraine remain far from a genuine diplomatic resolution. Talks are limited to isolated humanitarian gestures like prisoner exchanges, but there’s no shared framework for a peace agreement. “There’s no common language right now,” he said.
On the U.S. front, Bremmer discussed Trump’s shifting stance. Once optimistic about forging a relationship with Putin that could lead to sanction relief and shared ventures like Arctic mineral exploitation, Trump is now growing disillusioned and “bored” with the lack of progress. "He was more concerned about the Russian attacks in recent weeks. He’s losing patience," Bremmer said, adding that Trump is now pivoting toward diplomacy in the Middle East, particularly focusing on Gaza and Iran.
Bremmer warned that if Putin continues to ignore overtures from the U.S., Trump may withdraw diplomatic engagement altogether, signaling a turning point. “That could reshape the geopolitical landscape,” Bremmer said.
While Trump once pressured Ukraine into a ceasefire by suspending military aid and tying it to a minerals deal, Bremmer suggested that similar efforts now seem unlikely to succeed. “Putin knows Trump hasn’t enforced such conditions again. As long as that continues, efforts like Ukraine’s drone strike won’t be enough to force a ceasefire,” he said.
Despite Russia’s setbacks, Bremmer believes there’s still an opportunity for peace—especially if global powers like the U.S. and India align with Europe to pressure Russia. He concluded by warning that Putin’s current path may ultimately endanger his own leadership: “Those around him might begin to say he’s made the worst strategic decision in modern Russian history.”
