Sensex and Nifty are expected to start Monday's trading session on a weaker note, weighed down by escalating geopolitical tensions and a cautious tone in Asian markets. Investors are closely watching Iran's potential retaliation following the recent US airstrikes on nuclear facilities in Iran, which has heightened uncertainty.
Gift Nifty futures were trading at 25,015 around 8:10 am, suggesting a lower opening compared to Friday’s close of 25,112.4. Last week, Indian benchmark indices had gained approximately 1.6%, mainly driven by strength in financial stocks. However, the geopolitical risks now threaten to reverse that momentum.
Kranthi Bathini of WealthMills Securities remarked that while markets have somewhat adjusted to geopolitical shocks in recent times, the current developments could keep indices in a consolidation phase around the 25,000 mark. He noted that further reactions from Iran will be closely observed, and any escalation could impact sentiment sharply.
Adding to concerns is the recent surge in crude oil prices, now at a five-month high. Bathini emphasized that oil price movements are crucial at this point and will influence market direction in the short to medium term. India, being a major importer of crude, could face inflationary pressures and a widened fiscal deficit if prices stay elevated. Additionally, corporate earnings could come under stress due to rising input costs.
Technical analyst VLA Ambala pointed out that Nifty may find support between 25,000 and 24,950 while facing resistance around 25,260 to 25,300 in Monday’s session. These levels will be key for traders attempting to navigate through current volatility.
Most Asian markets opened in the red, with the MSCI Asia ex-Japan index falling over 1%. Investor fears are also linked to the possibility that Iran may attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz—a vital global oil and gas trade route—which could cause further turbulence in energy markets and global equities.
Overall, markets are entering the week with caution, and sentiment will likely remain fragile as developments in the Middle East unfold. Investors will be watching crude oil trends, global cues, and any official diplomatic responses closely before taking any significant positions.
