The recent escalation between Israel and Iran, with indirect but high-stakes U.S. involvement, has rapidly intensified into one of the most volatile flashpoints in the region in recent memory. Here's a detailed breakdown of the unfolding situation:
Key Developments:
1. Trump's Warning to Iran
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Former U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stern warning to Iran, saying:
"If we are attacked in any way, shape or form by Iran, the full strength and might of the US armed forces will come down on you at levels never seen before."
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He also claimed the U.S. had no role in Israel’s attacks but stated on Truth Social that he could “easily get a deal done between Iran and Israel and end this conflict.”
2. Israel's Operation ‘Rising Lion’
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On Saturday, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a highly coordinated and targeted offensive aimed at:
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Iran’s Defence Ministry HQ in Tehran
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The world’s largest natural gas processing facility, part of the South Pars field, shared by Iran and Qatar, located in Bushehr Province
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Reportedly, Iranian nuclear facilities, military scientists, and senior officials were also targeted.
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Iran condemned this as a “blatant act of aggression”, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi accusing Israel of trying to derail nuclear talks and expand the war.
3. Iran’s Retaliation – Operation ‘True Promise 3’
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In response, Iran launched Operation True Promise 3, unleashing waves of missile attacks on multiple Israeli cities beginning late Saturday and continuing into early Sunday.
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Cities hit include:
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Tamra: 4 dead
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Bat Yam: 6 dead
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Rehovot: injuries reported
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Over 200 people injured overall
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Iranian missiles also struck an apartment building in northern Israel, killing three women and injuring ten others.
4. Strike on Tehran – Civilian Tragedy
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One of the deadliest incidents occurred in Tehran, where an Israeli missile struck a residential high-rise, reportedly killing at least 60 people, including 29 children, according to Iranian officials.
5. Diplomatic Fallout
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In a direct consequence of the attacks, Tehran cancelled the sixth round of nuclear talks with Washington on Sunday.
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This marks a significant breakdown in diplomatic efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear program peacefully.
6. Israeli Leadership Response
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Israeli President Isaac Herzog spoke to the mayors of the affected cities and reaffirmed the government’s commitment to protect civilians, calling for strengthened defense systems.
Broader Implications:
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U.S. Position Complicated: Despite Trump’s denial of U.S. involvement, Iran may perceive U.S. complicity, especially given past coordination between Washington and Tel Aviv. This puts U.S. assets and personnel in the region at risk.
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Energy Market Disruption: The attack on the South Pars gas facility could trigger global gas price surges, especially since the field is jointly operated with Qatar, a major exporter to Europe and Asia.
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Nuclear Diplomacy in Jeopardy: With nuclear talks now suspended, hopes for a non-military resolution to Iran’s nuclear program are dimming rapidly.
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Regional Instability Rising: These escalations raise the possibility of broader conflict engulfing Lebanon, Syria, and the Persian Gulf states, especially if Hezbollah or Iran-backed militias enter the fray.
