Benchmark equity indices started the week on a positive note Monday, although volatility persisted as traders weighed the uncertainty surrounding possible U.S. tariff actions. At 9:26 am, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 157.26 points at 80,015.05, while the NSE Nifty50 rose 43.60 points to 24,406.90. Broader market movements were mixed, with notable gains in Grasim Industries, Adani Enterprises, SBI, and Jio Financial Services, while ICICI Bank, Hero MotoCorp, and Asian Paints lagged.
Market sentiment this week is expected to be heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the outcome of the Trump–Putin talks in Alaska, according to Dr. VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. He noted that if the talks produce a resolution to the Russia–Ukraine conflict, it could pave the way for the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Russia and prompt a review of the 25% penal tariff on India for its Russian oil purchases. Such a development could spark a rebound in an oversold market, although Vijayakumar cautioned that a sustained uptrend would require earnings support, most likely from the third quarter onward. He advised focusing on fairly valued large-cap stocks in the interim.
Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, pointed out that the recently imposed 50% U.S. tariff on Indian exports could weigh on export-linked sectors, keeping investor sentiment fragile in the near term. While he believes the tariff may not significantly affect India’s overall growth outlook, further U.S. trade restrictions could amplify market concerns. Continued foreign institutional investor (FII) selling and ongoing Q1 earnings volatility were highlighted as additional downside risks, though Singhania noted that selective opportunities still exist.
The Nifty has now declined for six consecutive weeks, slipping below both its 100-day and 55-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) amid pressure on IT and banking stocks. However, the index remains above the crucial 200-day EMA at around 24,200. Anand James, Chief Market Strategist at Geojit, said the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 24,049 is exerting downward pressure, with Fibonacci support seen at 23,722. He identified 24,433–24,475 as the potential short-covering trigger zone, which could lift the index toward 24,670 if breached.
Singhania sees the 24,500–24,550 range, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, as a strong resistance area and a potential “sell” zone for traders. On the downside, a break below 24,200 could open the way to 23,900. In the banking sector, the Bank Nifty extended its losses for a second week, falling over 1% and trading below both its 21-day and 55-day EMAs. Singhania said the index’s lower-low formation and breach of horizontal support point to continued weakness, with 54,500 as the next key support. A close below that level could accelerate declines toward 54,000, while immediate resistance remains at 55,600.
