India has emerged as the largest buyer of Russian oil ever since Western sanctions compelled Moscow to shift its energy exports in 2022. The availability of cheaper Russian crude has allowed Indian refineries to manage their operating costs more effectively, though the partnership has also faced significant global criticism. Recent developments suggest that India is preparing to raise its intake of Russian oil during September, with traders indicating that purchases could rise between ten to twenty percent compared to August. This increase is largely driven by Russia’s decision to offer deeper discounts on crude exports to maintain sales, particularly after a series of Ukrainian drone strikes severely disrupted Russia’s refining capacity and reduced its ability to process oil domestically.
While the economic advantage of cheaper Russian oil remains clear, the geopolitical implications have grown more complex. India’s growing reliance on Russian energy has drawn the attention of the United States, which has responded by imposing higher tariffs on Indian exports of goods such as garments and jewellery. These tariffs, reaching up to fifty percent, have been interpreted as partly retaliatory to India’s continued energy partnership with Moscow. Despite this, New Delhi has sought to balance its energy needs with diplomatic considerations. Government officials emphasize that dialogue is ongoing to address the tariff dispute, even as Prime Minister Narendra Modi continues to foster close ties with global leaders, including Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the same time, Indian officials argue that the criticism from the West is inconsistent, pointing out that many Western nations continue to engage in trade with Russia in non-energy sectors.
Industry data highlights that in the first twenty days of August, India imported around 1.5 million barrels of Russian crude daily. This figure remains broadly consistent with July, although slightly lower than the average during the first half of the year. With Russian oil now accounting for about forty percent of India’s total crude imports, Moscow has become the country’s largest single supplier, cementing its role in India’s energy strategy. Traders also note that September shipments of Russian Urals crude are being offered at discounts of two to three dollars per barrel compared to benchmark Brent prices, a more favorable rate than the narrower discount of August. This renewed price advantage is expected to encourage refiners such as Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy to expand their purchases, though official statements from the companies are still awaited.
Experts widely believe that India’s dependence on Russian oil will persist unless there is an internationally coordinated and strictly enforced ban. Analysts like Sumit Ritolia from Kpler underline that, without a significant shift in trade economics or a clear directive from the Indian government, Russian crude will remain integral to India’s supply mix. The broader implications are also significant for global energy markets. Brokerage firm CLSA estimates that if India were to halt imports of Russian crude, the world oil supply could decline by roughly one million barrels per day, a shortfall likely to push international prices closer to the one hundred dollar mark.
For the time being, however, traders anticipate that India’s high levels of Russian crude imports will continue well into early October. The true impact of recently imposed US tariffs and the European Union’s tightening of price caps on Russian oil will only become visible in shipments expected later in the year. This evolving scenario highlights India’s ongoing challenge of balancing its immediate economic interests in securing affordable energy with the longer-term diplomatic pressures from its international partners.
