With the deadline for the United States’ new tariff measures on Indian imports drawing closer, New Delhi is intensifying diplomatic and strategic efforts while closely following global developments, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The American government recently imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods, raising the total duty to 50%, in direct response to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil. This escalation in trade pressure has heightened the urgency for Indian policymakers, who are hoping that a swift resolution to the ongoing war might ease the geopolitical tensions fuelling such economic actions.
Indian officials are paying special attention to the upcoming meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump, set to take place in Alaska on August 15. Trump announced the meeting through social media, suggesting that discussions with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had brought the parties close to a ceasefire agreement, potentially ending the three-and-a-half-year-long war. The prospect of peace in Eastern Europe is seen in New Delhi as a critical factor that could influence Washington’s stance on trade penalties against India.
At the same time, back-channel talks and official negotiations are underway between Indian and American representatives to explore the possibility of reducing or eliminating the newly imposed tariffs. While New Delhi is actively engaging in these discussions, officials are avoiding premature optimism. They are also determined not to shift the cost of these punitive measures onto ordinary citizens and small businesses, a move that could hurt domestic economic stability.
Government sources have pushed back against suggestions that India does not understand Trump’s leadership approach during his second term. They argue that Indian policymakers are fully aware of the transactional and often unpredictable style that defines his administration. However, they also note that this term has seen a weakening of institutional checks and balances within the United States, with political and policy shifts causing disruptions in areas ranging from the judiciary to academia. Despite this turbulence, Trump has achieved several policy wins in recent months, often without significant domestic resistance, even on controversial issues like immigration.
Indian strategists recognise that while cooperation with the United States is essential, there are clear boundaries to what India can concede in negotiations. They emphasise that certain domains—such as control over cryptocurrency regulations, national oil reserves, and mineral resources—are non-negotiable. These are seen as core elements of India’s sovereignty and strategic independence, regardless of external pressures.
Diplomatic positioning is not limited to the United States. Indian foreign relations with European Union powers like France and Germany have grown stronger, with both nations expressing open support for India’s right to self-defence, particularly during military operations such as Operation Sindoor. New Delhi’s engagement in multilateral platforms is also expanding, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi preparing to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in China, while attention remains on the growing influence of the BRICS alliance. In addition, Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit India later this year, further underlining the complexity and multi-dimensional nature of India’s foreign policy in this period of heightened geopolitical and economic tensions.
