Europe’s defence transformation under Trump is nothing short of historic. For decades, the continent outsourced much of its security to Washington, relying on American troops, nuclear deterrence, and the implicit guarantee of Article 5 under NATO. That trust has now fractured. Trump’s transactional worldview—pressuring allies to pay more, threatening withdrawal, and hinting that NATO obligations are conditional—has jolted Europe into realising that it can no longer afford to be strategically complacent.
Germany’s drift back toward conscription marks a symbolic break with its post-WWII pacifist identity. The Bundeswehr’s chronic shortages, coupled with Trump’s 5% GDP spending demands, have forced Berlin to embrace reforms once considered politically unthinkable. France, meanwhile, is doubling defence spending and reviving nuclear strategy debates, underscoring the seriousness with which Paris views the erosion of transatlantic security guarantees. Macron’s words—“freedom has never been so threatened”—are not just rhetoric; they reflect Europe’s recognition that Washington’s umbrella may collapse at the moment of greatest need.
Eastern Europe’s response is even more urgent. Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, sitting on NATO’s frontlines, have treated Trump’s wavering support as an existential risk. Their rapid build-up of troops, conscription drives, and heavy investment in tanks, fighter jets, and missile systems reveal a continent that is preparing not for symbolic defence, but for the possibility of direct conflict with Russia—without the certainty of full American backing. Sweden and Finland, once staunchly neutral, have pivoted sharply, binding themselves to NATO but also accelerating their own militarisation.
The deeper issue, however, is not just Trump but the trajectory of US foreign policy itself. As analysts like Vexler and Kastehelmis have argued, Trump is not a temporary glitch but a reflection of America’s shifting priorities and domestic politics. Europe is coming to terms with a sobering reality: US security guarantees can no longer be taken at face value. This recognition is forcing European capitals to think beyond NATO’s old architecture and towards self-reliance—whether through EU defence integration, deeper Franco-German cooperation, or pan-European conscription models.
In essence, Trump has become the great disruptor of Europe’s post-war security order. His presidency has catalysed a strategic awakening, forcing nations long comfortable in dependence to face the uncomfortable truth that sovereignty in the 21st century demands military strength. From Berlin to Paris to Warsaw, the continent is entering a new era where reliance on the US is giving way to a hard-headed realism: Europe must stand on its own feet, or risk being left vulnerable in a world of resurgent great-power conflict.
