The United States is experiencing significant consequences in its labour market due to a sharp decline in immigration, an issue that has become more pressing with its ageing population. According to findings from the Pew Research Centre, the country has lost more than 750,000 workers directly as a result of the reduced inflow of immigrants. This situation has been further aggravated by former President Donald Trump’s stringent immigration policies, which included mass deportations, tighter restrictions on legal entry, and an increase in arrests. Collectively, these measures have triggered the first notable drop in the immigrant population since the 1960s, posing a challenge to a workforce that has long relied on immigration as a driving force behind economic strength.
A recent study published by the Pew Research Centre on Thursday sheds light on this trend, revealing that the immigrant population fell by nearly 1.5 million between January and June 2025 alone. This sharp reduction brought the total number of immigrants in the United States down from 53.3 million at the beginning of the year to just 51.9 million by midyear. Jeffrey Passel, a senior demographer at the Centre, described the findings as a “dramatic change,” emphasising the scale and speed of this decline.
The shrinking immigrant population is directly tied to disruptions in the labour market. Since the native working-age population in the US is not growing, the only meaningful source of labour force expansion is through the arrival of new immigrants. Without this replenishment, the workforce is shrinking, and, as Passel explained, an economy without a growing workforce inevitably faces hurdles in maintaining its pace of growth and productivity.
Although the shift in immigration trends first became evident in 2024 under the Biden administration, which had introduced certain policy changes at the southern border, the downward trajectory intensified dramatically with Trump’s aggressive stance. The combination of harsh enforcement actions, increased deportations, and legal barriers to entry has pushed immigrant numbers to an unprecedented low. Interestingly, even the population of undocumented immigrants, which had surged to a record 14 million in 2023, is now declining. This reversal is largely attributed to deportations and the rollback of deportation protections implemented under the Trump administration.
Despite the overall decline, the US continues to host more immigrants than any other country in the world. However, when comparing proportions, nations such as Canada and the United Arab Emirates have a much higher share of immigrants relative to their total populations. In the US, immigrants made up 15.8% of the population in January 2025, but this proportion dipped to 15.4% by June. The demographic composition of the immigrant community is also changing, with more individuals now coming from South America rather than from traditional regions such as Mexico and Central America.
Regionally, Texas and California continue to be the top destinations for immigrants, maintaining their status as the leading states for immigrant populations. Yet, over time, the difference between the two states has narrowed considerably. This points to a broader redistribution trend in where immigrants settle across the US, even as the overall numbers decline. The Pew Research Centre’s findings underscore how deeply intertwined immigration is with the health of the US economy, and how restrictive policies can reverberate across labour markets, demographics, and long-term growth prospects.
