Two years after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack that killed over 1,200 civilians in southern Israel, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow to “wipe out” the group remains far from fulfilled. While Israel has inflicted heavy losses on Hamas, killing an estimated 17,000–23,000 fighters—including most of its senior leadership—and devastating Gaza’s infrastructure, the organization continues to survive, adapt, and maintain influence over the Strip.
The war, sparked by the surprise Hamas assault, saw Israel launch Operation Swords of Iron, targeting Hamas command centers, tunnels, and rocket launch sites. Ground operations and airstrikes flattened neighborhoods and critical infrastructure, including hospitals and schools. Key Hamas figures, such as political chief Ismail Haniyeh, Saleh al-Arouri, and Yahya Sinwar, were eliminated through targeted strikes, significantly disrupting the organization’s command chain. The destruction of the so-called “Gaza Metro,” an extensive underground tunnel network used for smuggling and military operations, also dealt a severe blow to the group’s operational capabilities.
Despite these losses, Hamas has adapted. Its surviving 10,000–12,000 fighters operate primarily in southern Gaza, employing guerrilla tactics, hit-and-run attacks, and ambushes. Recruitment continues, with estimates suggesting 10,000–15,000 new members have joined since 2023. Its leadership has decentralized, prioritizing survival over direct confrontation, and has maintained governance functions through informal networks and emergency cash disbursements to civil servants.
The humanitarian and political context also contributes to Hamas’s endurance. Palestinian resentment over displacement, civilian deaths, and destruction in Gaza fuels the group’s narrative of resistance, keeping its political relevance alive. Internal dissent in Gaza is tightly controlled, with harsh punishments for public protest, while Israel’s arming of anti-Hamas militias has further complicated the power dynamics within the Strip.
Experts caution that Israel’s military successes have weakened Hamas but not eliminated it. Weapons smuggling through tunnels, ongoing recruitment, and a persistent local support base mean the organization remains operational. Analysts note that survival itself has become a strategic objective for Hamas, allowing it to regroup, adapt, and continue exerting influence despite the heavy toll of two years of conflict.
With US President Donald Trump proposing a Gaza peace plan that includes disarming Hamas and transferring governance to an independent authority, the future of the conflict remains uncertain. While Trump warns of severe consequences if Hamas rejects the plan, the group’s resilience demonstrates that Israel’s goal of total military victory remains unachieved, and the situation in Gaza continues to be highly fragile.
