In September, China imported no soybeans from the United States, marking the first month since November 2018 that US shipments fell to zero. Data from China’s General Administration of Customs showed that imports from the US dropped from 1.7 million metric tons a year earlier. The decline is attributed to high tariffs imposed by China on American soybeans and the fact that previously harvested US supplies, known as old-crop beans, had already been traded.
China, the world’s largest soybean importer, instead significantly increased purchases from South America. Shipments from Brazil rose 29.9% year-on-year to 10.96 million tons, representing 85.2% of China’s total soybean imports in September. Argentine shipments surged 91.5% to 1.17 million tons, accounting for 9% of the total. Overall, China imported 12.87 million metric tons of soybeans last month, the second-highest monthly total on record.
Analysts say the shift is primarily tariff-driven. “This is mainly due to tariffs. In a typical year, some old-crop beans would still enter the market,” noted Wan Chengzhi from Capital Jingdu Futures.
The US has not sold any cargoes from this autumn’s harvest to China, and the window for purchases is closing quickly as buyers secure shipments through November, mostly from Brazil and Argentina. Argentina’s brief tax holiday has further boosted its exports. Without a trade breakthrough, US farmers could face billions in losses, while China may encounter a potential supply gap early next year before Brazil’s new crop is available.
“A soybean supply gap may emerge in China between February and April next year if there’s no trade deal in place. Brazil has already shipped a huge volume, and no one knows how much old-crop stock remains,” said Johnny Xiang of AgRadar Consulting.
Trade talks between Beijing and Washington are reportedly regaining momentum following weeks of tariff threats and export controls. US President Donald Trump expressed optimism over a possible soybean deal.
For the January–September period, China imported 63.7 million tons from Brazil, up 2.4% year-on-year, and 2.9 million tons from Argentina, up 31.8% year-on-year. Despite shunning this year’s US harvest, earlier 2025 purchases mean year-to-date imports of American soybeans have totaled 16.8 million tons, a 15.5% increase over last year.
