The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that conditions are now favourable for the further withdrawal of the southwest monsoon from the remaining regions of Gujarat, additional areas of Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, and parts of Maharashtra within the next three to four days. This marks an important stage in the seasonal transition, as the retreat had been delayed for nearly two weeks.
Typically, the southwest monsoon begins its withdrawal from Maharashtra around October 5 each year. However, this year, the process stalled after September 26 due to successive low-pressure systems developing over the Bay of Bengal. According to IMD officials, once the withdrawal process begins in Maharashtra, it will quickly extend to Mumbai and Pune, where the normal withdrawal dates are October 8 and 9, respectively.
The delay, as explained by the department, was primarily due to a sequence of weather disturbances. The first system formed over the Bay of Bengal and moved northwest, bringing widespread rainfall to central and northwestern India before intensifying into Cyclone Shakti near the Gujarat coast. Soon after, another weather system formed over the Bay, travelled towards Bihar, and added more rain to several regions, effectively holding up the monsoon’s retreat.
While Pune has not experienced significant rainfall in recent days, the IMD maintained the monsoon line across rain-receiving regions, resulting in an overall delay in the withdrawal declaration. Meteorologist Anupam Kashyapi said that isolated thundershowers might occur in Maharashtra around October 8 and 9, but widespread activity is unlikely. He explained that Cyclone Shakti had drawn away most of the atmospheric moisture and disrupted the wind circulation typically responsible for retreating thundershowers. Consequently, Maharashtra has seen a much quieter October, with the usual pattern of post-monsoon showers missing this year. Kashyapi added that the monsoon is expected to completely withdraw from most of Maharashtra, including Mumbai and Pune, by around October 11.
Former IMD climate research head KS Hosalikar noted that active weather systems over either the Arabian Sea or the Bay of Bengal often interrupt or delay the withdrawal process. He added that Cyclone Shakti, currently over the Arabian Sea, is expected to weaken into a depression by October 7, which could finally allow the monsoon withdrawal to resume and progress smoothly thereafter.
