After the breakdown of the Alaska talks, Hungary has been chosen as the new venue for a crucial meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin to explore possible resolutions to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. However, what has drawn significant attention is not the meeting itself but the venue’s selection. The central question remains how Putin, who is currently facing an international arrest warrant, will manage to reach Budapest without being detained upon arrival. Despite the theoretical obligation of Hungary to arrest him, such a scenario is highly improbable. The Kremlin must first navigate through an intricate web of sanctions, legal constraints, and geopolitical obstacles before arranging Putin’s safe passage to Hungary.
The controversy stems from the International Criminal Court (ICC) arrest warrant issued in 2023 against Vladimir Putin for alleged war crimes, particularly concerning the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children during the war. Although the ICC issued the warrant, it lacks an enforcement mechanism of its own, relying entirely on its member nations to execute arrests. This places Hungary, along with neighbouring countries such as Serbia and Romania, in a difficult position since, as signatories to the Rome Statute, they are technically obligated to arrest Putin if his aircraft enters their jurisdiction. Germany has already called on Hungary to fulfill its legal duties in this regard.
Nevertheless, such a dramatic event is unlikely to materialize. While Hungary remains a signatory to the Rome Statute, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán initiated withdrawal procedures from the ICC earlier this year. Since the withdrawal process typically takes a year to complete, Hungary is still technically bound by its ICC obligations. Yet, given Orbán’s longstanding alliance with both Trump and Putin, and his government’s assurances of Putin’s safety, the likelihood of any arrest is minimal. Hungary has already used a similar stance to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, another leader facing war crime accusations.
Orbán has been actively communicating with both Trump and Putin to finalize details of the planned summit. He even remarked that Budapest is “essentially the only place in Europe where such a meeting can be held.” The summit offers him an opportunity to shift public attention away from domestic challenges, including economic stagnation and high inflation, while positioning Hungary as a diplomatic bridge in Europe. Historically, very few leaders have actually surrendered to the ICC, with notable examples being former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Liberian President Charles Taylor, further underscoring how rare enforcement truly is.
If Putin accepts the invitation to meet Trump in Budapest, it would mark his first trip to a European Union member state since the Russia-Ukraine war began nearly four years ago. However, the journey itself presents immense risks. The Kremlin has acknowledged that numerous logistical and legal challenges remain unresolved. Since the ICC warrant, Putin has restricted his travel primarily to nations outside Western alliances. Unlike the Alaska meeting, which allowed him to avoid NATO and EU territories, reaching Budapest means confronting the full range of EU restrictions, including the current ban on Russian aircraft flying over or landing within EU airspace. Although EU member nations can make exceptions, granting one for Putin would provoke political controversy across the continent.
European governments now face a dilemma: allowing Putin safe passage might be perceived as undermining international justice, while denying it could make them appear resistant to peace efforts in Ukraine. This has placed the EU in a delicate diplomatic predicament. Several possible flight routes exist for Putin to reach Budapest, each with unique challenges. The most direct path from Moscow—spanning roughly three hours—passes through Belarus and western Ukraine, but Ukrainian airspace remains a combat zone, making this route dangerously untenable.
An alternative five-hour route would take Putin through Belarus, Poland, and Slovakia before reaching Hungary. However, Poland’s strong anti-Russian stance and its membership in NATO make this route politically risky. Recently, tensions escalated after reports of Russian drones breaching Polish airspace, prompting Warsaw to warn that any future violations could provoke retaliation. Slovakia, on the other hand, maintains energy ties with Russia and is less likely to obstruct Putin’s passage.
The third and most practical route could see Putin flying for eight hours via Turkey—an intermediary power that maintains diplomatic relations with both Moscow and the West—then passing over Greece and the Mediterranean before entering Europe through the Adriatic region. From there, Putin could fly north over Montenegro, an ICC member and NATO state, before landing in Serbia, one of Russia’s few steadfast European allies. This route mirrors the path taken recently by Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, who carefully avoided several European nations while traveling to the United States for the UN General Assembly.
Ultimately, for Putin to reach Hungary safely, intricate diplomatic coordination will be essential. This includes securing tacit approval or at least non-interference from NATO states along the way. The meeting’s feasibility hinges on whether the United States and its European partners are willing to overlook formalities to facilitate direct peace talks that could potentially alter the course of the Ukraine war.
