During the previous week, gold’s nine-week upward streak came to an end as prices fell more than 3%. December gold futures on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) were trading at approximately ₹1,22,635 per 10 grams on Monday. According to Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst at Axis Securities, this retreat was mainly a result of profit-taking ahead of several critical global events, including the anticipated meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The renewed progress in U.S.–China trade negotiations reduced the appeal of gold as a hedge, since easing tensions often lead investors to move away from safety assets.
Gaglani explained that key economic decisions from major central banks are now in focus. The U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan are all expected to issue policy updates this week. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25-basis-point interest rate cut after lower-than-expected inflation data, while both the ECB and BOJ are anticipated to maintain current rates. In India, despite global support for gold, domestic demand has softened due to persistently high prices. Analysts expect strong price support near ₹1,17,000 per 10 grams and resistance around ₹1,24,000, indicating that prices could remain stable but range-bound in the short term.
Darshan Desai, CEO of Aspect Bullion & Refinery, highlighted that the overall market mood in the bullion segment remains cautious. He noted that optimism about a potential U.S.–China trade agreement and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar continue to weigh on gold prices. The current week is viewed as particularly significant, with not only the Trump–Xi meeting but also the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy announcement and major corporate earnings influencing investor sentiment. Desai warned that further appreciation in the dollar or positive updates from the trade talks could trigger additional profit-booking, adding downward pressure on gold. Conversely, if the Fed’s statement signals fewer rate cuts than expected, that too could limit gold’s upward movement.
Silver has mirrored gold’s recent behavior, facing similar selling pressure after months of strong performance. Rahul Kalantri, Vice President of Commodities at Mehta Equities, attributed silver’s decline to a stronger dollar index and encouraging progress in U.S. trade negotiations with both China and India. He also pointed out that improvements in the Gaza peace situation have contributed to global optimism, which in turn has led investors to shift funds from safe-haven metals to riskier assets like equities. As a result, silver prices on the MCX stood at ₹1,46,931 per kilogram, marking a cooling phase in the metal’s rally.
Despite the decline, some analysts believe there are signs of stability emerging at lower price levels. With inflation softening and expectations of additional Federal Reserve rate cuts, investor interest in gold and silver is likely to find renewed support. Kalantri observed that gold currently has support around $4,050–$4,005 per ounce and resistance at $4,145–$4,165, while silver’s support lies near $47.80–$47.20 with resistance at $48.65–$48.95. In Indian rupee terms, gold is expected to remain supported between ₹1,22,470 and ₹1,21,780, and face resistance around ₹1,23,950–₹1,24,800. Silver, meanwhile, could find support near ₹1,46,250–₹1,45,150, with resistance between ₹1,47,950 and ₹1,48,780. These levels suggest a near-term consolidation phase, where prices may fluctuate within a limited range.
Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association and Executive Chairperson of Aspect Global Ventures, described the recent dip as a “healthy correction” rather than a cause for concern. She explained that the market had become overbought after weeks of consistent gains, and some cooling was inevitable as investors took profits. The outflow from gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the easing of global tensions have also contributed to this adjustment. However, she added that downside risks remain limited because softer U.S. inflation data has reinforced the likelihood of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve.
Kamboj emphasized that the upcoming week will be crucial for determining gold’s next trajectory. The much-anticipated Federal Reserve meeting and the scheduled discussions between Presidents Trump and Xi in South Korea could significantly influence market sentiment. If the trade talks produce positive outcomes, gold prices could face additional pressure, since much of the expected rate cut has already been factored into current valuations. However, if the Fed’s comments suggest a more accommodative policy stance going forward, it could lend renewed strength to the yellow metal.
In summary, both gold and silver are currently navigating a period of consolidation driven by global optimism, central bank decisions, and geopolitical developments. While short-term volatility is likely, the underlying fundamentals suggest that these metals continue to play a vital role in diversified investment portfolios. For now, analysts advise patience—allowing the market to stabilize before making new entries, especially for those considering long-term exposure to precious metals.
