The tetra-crisis of Field Marshal Munir


Pakistan’s recent airstrikes on Afghanistan have pushed Field Marshal Asim Munir into one of the most complex crises of his tenure as Army Chief. On October 9, Pakistan carried out unprecedented air raids on Kabul and other Afghan cities, targeting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants whom Islamabad accuses of operating from Afghan safe havens. These strikes, coinciding with Taliban Foreign Minister Maulavi Amir Khan Muttaqi’s visit to New Delhi, mark the first time Pakistan has directly struck the Afghan capital — a significant escalation in Af-Pak tensions.

The main target of the attacks was reportedly TTP chief Mufti Noor Wali Mehsud, under whose leadership the TTP has unified its factions and intensified attacks on Pakistan’s security forces. Since January 2025 alone, the TTP has killed more than 900 Pakistani personnel — the bloodiest toll since 2009. A recent attack on October 7 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa killed 17 soldiers, including a Lt Colonel and a Major, prompting the retaliatory strikes. Pakistan alleges that the Taliban government shelters the TTP in Khost and Paktika provinces, from where the group operates freely.

While Pakistan has previously targeted militants inside Afghanistan — notably in 2024 — these strikes on Kabul signal a dangerous new phase. They risk triggering Taliban retaliation and worsening instability across the border. The timing has also drawn international attention, especially as the Taliban engage diplomatically with India, which complicates Pakistan’s regional calculus.

For GHQ Rawalpindi and Field Marshal Munir, this crisis comes amid mounting internal challenges — insurgencies in both Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, rising domestic unrest, and strained civil-military relations. The military now faces a two-front security dilemma: deterring India on one border while managing Afghanistan and internal insurgencies on the other.

Internationally, Pakistan’s renewed cooperation with the United States adds another layer of complexity. Washington is reportedly seeking to regain influence in Afghanistan, including the possible use of Bagram Airbase, while Moscow, Beijing, and New Delhi oppose such a move. The U.S. sees Pakistan as a key partner in its regional re-engagement and has already agreed to supply upgraded AIM-120C5 AMRAAM missiles for Pakistan’s F-16 fleet, part of a broader post-Operation Sindoor buildup.

Munir is also courting U.S. strategic interest through mineral and logistics deals — including offering access via the Pasni port and a potential rail corridor to Central Asia’s resource-rich nations. However, persistent TTP attacks and instability threaten to derail these plans, undermining Pakistan’s investment pitch and its strategic ambitions.

In essence, Munir now faces a “tetra crisis” — balancing tensions with India and Afghanistan, while battling twin insurgencies at home. For Pakistan’s generals, the current turmoil is a stark reminder of their long history of double dealings — supporting the U.S.-led war on terror while simultaneously harboring elements of the Taliban. The collapse of the U.S.-backed Afghan government in 2021, which was expected to deliver Islamabad “strategic depth” against India, instead gave birth to a hostile Taliban regime.

The latest airstrikes, therefore, represent not only a desperate attempt to curb the TTP’s growing threat but also a reflection of Pakistan’s deepening strategic isolation — a crisis Field Marshal Munir must now navigate on multiple fronts.


 

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