US President Donald Trump has expressed that it would be an “insult” to the United States if he did not receive the Nobel Peace Prize next week. However, experts in Oslo, where the prize is awarded, say he stands virtually no chance due to his “America First” policies and divisive leadership style.
Trump has claimed to have resolved multiple conflicts in a short period, but experts describe these assertions as grossly exaggerated. Oeivind Stenersen, a historian familiar with the Nobel Prize, noted that Trump’s unilateral approach contrasts sharply with the prize’s ideals, which emphasize multilateral cooperation, such as through the United Nations. Karim Haggag, of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, emphasized that the award should recognize tangible peacemaking successes and often favors those working quietly in neglected conflict zones.
This year, 338 individuals and organizations were nominated, though the nominees’ names remain secret for 50 years. Observers suggest the Nobel Committee is more likely to honor local peacebuilders in regions like Sudan, the Sahel, and the Horn of Africa, as well as organizations protecting journalists amid global crises, rather than high-profile political figures.
In parallel, speculation surrounds other Nobel prizes: the Literature Prize, announced on October 9, is tipped to go to Switzerland’s Christian Kracht, a leading contemporary German-language author, while the Medicine, Physics, Chemistry, and Economics prizes will be revealed sequentially starting Monday.
Overall, while Trump publicly asserts his expectation of recognition, experts agree that the Nobel Peace Prize traditionally rewards substantive, multilateral, and often underappreciated efforts in global peacebuilding, making his prospects extremely unlikely.
