US President Donald Trump has signalled the possibility of military action in Venezuela, escalating tensions in South America. Venezuela, an oil-rich country, has been under strict US sanctions since 2015, but Trump’s latest moves suggest he now seeks full regime change. The primary target is President Nicolás Maduro, whose administration has long been at odds with Washington. Trump had previously hinted at military intervention during his first term in 2017, but the rhetoric has now transformed into what appears to be preparations for an actual offensive.
In recent months, Trump has intensified his “maximum pressure” campaign against Venezuela. He has doubled the bounty on Maduro to $50 million and authorised covert CIA operations inside the country. The US has deployed B-1 and B-52 bombers, F-35 stealth jets, and special forces near Venezuela while directing the USS Gerald Ford carrier strike group to the region. The Caribbean has seen an unusual concentration of US warships — more than during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis. American destroyers and bombers have already conducted several airstrikes on suspected drug vessels linked to Venezuelan cartels, a move seen by analysts as both a show of force and a prelude to possible escalation.
The scenario draws clear parallels with past US interventions in Latin America and the Middle East. Operations in Grenada in 1983 and Panama in 1993 were rapid and decisive, removing regimes opposed to US interests. The 2003 invasion of Iraq followed a similar pattern, though with disastrous long-term consequences. Venezuela, with over 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves — the largest in the world — now finds itself in a comparable position. The arrival of the USS Gerald Ford, the world’s largest aircraft carrier, within striking distance of Venezuelan waters, underscores the gravity of the situation.
Analysts outline three possible outcomes. The first is a covert operation resulting in regime change without direct combat. This would involve the assassination or capture of top Venezuelan leaders and a military coup forcing Maduro into exile. However, this remains unlikely, as Venezuela lacks an organised insurgent force comparable to those seen in Syria or Libya. Maduro maintains firm control over his military and intelligence services, reducing the feasibility of such an operation.
The second possibility is a limited military intervention focused on targeted strikes. The US could destroy Venezuelan military infrastructure and pressure Maduro to surrender power without engaging in a prolonged ground war. The arrival of the Gerald Ford and multiple destroyers could facilitate precision operations aimed at crippling Venezuela’s command centres and air force. If Maduro capitulates, the US would claim a swift victory and withdraw its forces, similar to its operations in Panama.
The third and most extreme scenario is a full-scale invasion. Though militarily feasible, it poses immense political and logistical challenges. Venezuela’s armed forces are small and poorly equipped, but the country’s geography — with dense jungles and rugged mountains — favours defensive guerrilla warfare. Maduro has activated the Bolivarian militia, comprising millions of civilians, to resist any invasion through prolonged asymmetric conflict. This could turn Venezuela into another Iraq-like quagmire, draining US resources and eroding domestic support for yet another foreign war.
Ultimately, while Trump’s military posture is aggressive, a full invasion appears unlikely due to the risks of high casualties and global condemnation. A limited strike or covert destabilisation remains more plausible. Yet, as US warships converge on the Caribbean, the world watches to see whether Trump’s threats will once again be dismissed as empty bluster or whether Venezuela will become the stage for his administration’s most consequential foreign intervention.
