The imminent arrival of the USS Gerald R Ford, the most advanced aircraft carrier in the US Navy, is poised to mark one of the most significant displays of American military power in Latin America in generations. While Washington has framed its growing military presence near Venezuela as part of a counter-narcotics campaign, some experts argue that the deployment is aimed more at accelerating political change in Caracas than tackling drug trafficking.
The Ford deployment represents a major escalation in the Trump administration’s regional posture. It joins a sprawling network of US military assets already conducting bomber flights near Venezuela’s coast, CIA operations authorised inside Venezuelan territory, and maritime strikes in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific that have killed more than 75 people. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has formally named the operation “Southern Spear,” emphasizing its growing scale. Once the Ford reaches the Caribbean, the mission will involve nearly a dozen naval vessels and around 12,000 sailors and Marines.
US officials insist the operation is focused squarely on stopping narcotics from reaching American shores. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has repeatedly argued that Venezuela’s government functions as a “transshipment organisation” for drug cartels and that the military buildup is directed at “organised criminal narcoterrorists.” Yet analysts point out that an aircraft carrier’s capabilities—long-range strike aircraft, deep-penetration bombing capacity, and large-scale aviation operations—are of limited use in ordinary drug-interdiction missions. Elizabeth Dickinson of the International Crisis Group argued that the deployment is clearly intended to pressure President Nicolás Maduro, raising concerns across Latin America about the possibility of US military action.
Some defence analysts believe Washington may be preparing for limited strikes unless Maduro steps down within weeks. Bryan Clark of the Hudson Institute suggested the administration would not deploy a carrier strike group “if they didn’t intend to use it.” However, others note that Venezuela’s Russian-supplied missile defence systems could pose significant risks to American pilots, making cruise missiles launched from other ships more likely than carrier-based airstrikes.
In response, Venezuela has staged what it calls a “massive” mobilisation of troops and civilians. Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López showcased surface-to-air missile batteries on state TV, warning that the country’s land, air, naval, and riverine forces were preparing for potential US aggression. Maduro himself, wanted in the US on narcoterrorism charges, has claimed that Washington is openly pursuing regime change. Venezuela’s opposition leaders, meanwhile, have revived long-running hopes that a credible threat of American military force could finally collapse Maduro’s government.
The US buildup has also generated friction across the region. Colombia briefly suspended intelligence sharing with Washington before softening its stance. Mexico has agreed to expand naval cooperation with the US to intercept suspected drug shipments in international waters, aiming to reduce the likelihood of American strikes off its coast. In Washington, rights groups and some lawmakers have warned about unchecked escalation, though Senate Republicans recently blocked legislation that would have limited Trump’s authority to launch attacks against Venezuela.
Despite the rising tension, some analysts argue that Ford’s deployment may be more about signalling than imminent war. David Smilde of Tulane University said the US lacks the manpower for a full-scale invasion, even with the carrier in place. Instead, he views the deployment as part of a strategy to apply pressure without necessarily resorting to force. Still, the presence of such a powerful warship near Venezuela creates what experts describe as a “use-it-or-lose-it” window for the Trump administration, as the Ford may soon be needed in other theatres such as the Middle East.
As the Ford approaches Venezuelan waters, the region watches anxiously. Whether it remains primarily a symbolic show of force or becomes a platform for direct military action will depend on how events unfold in the coming weeks.
