US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has once again asserted that “1.6 million self-deportations” of undocumented immigrants have occurred since President Donald Trump took office, a claim that continues to draw scrutiny for lacking verified evidence. Noem made the statement in a social media post that included a promotional-style video celebrating what she called a success of the administration’s immigration policy.
The video, featuring upbeat music and edited clips of migrants boarding airplanes, carried the message “Use CBP Home to get a free flight home, $1,000 exit bonus, and preserve potential opportunity to return the right way.” The post appeared to endorse the use of the CBP Home app — a government tool that reportedly facilitates voluntary departures for undocumented migrants.
Noem originally made the “1.6 million” claim in August, citing what she said were data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). However, fact-checkers and immigration researchers have disputed her interpretation, pointing out that the BLS does not track or publish any dataset on “self-deportations.” Instead, the figure seems to originate from a report by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS), a Washington-based think tank that advocates for lower immigration levels.
The CIS report, published on August 12, used estimates derived from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey (CPS) and other demographic data to measure shifts in the unauthorized immigrant population. However, the report itself acknowledged that the 1.6 million figure was only a preliminary estimate and that it included multiple categories of individuals — not just voluntary departures.
According to the methodology outlined by CIS and later confirmed by independent analyses, the 1.6 million includes undocumented immigrants who may have voluntarily left the U.S., been deported by authorities, died, or changed their immigration status by obtaining legal residency, asylum, or temporary protection. As such, it represents a net population change rather than an exact count of self-deportations.
PolitiFact, a U.S.-based fact-checking organisation, reviewed Noem’s earlier statement and rated it misleading. The outlet noted that the BLS has no program that monitors migration or deportation trends and that survey-based population estimates are subject to significant sampling limitations. “The number does not directly measure people leaving the country,” PolitiFact said, explaining that the CPS relies on household surveys that cannot differentiate between voluntary and forced departures.
Immigration analysts have also warned that Noem’s use of the term “self-deportation” appears to conflate a complex demographic shift with a deliberate policy outcome. David Bier, an immigration researcher at the Cato Institute, told reporters that “there is no empirical evidence to support the claim that 1.6 million undocumented immigrants voluntarily departed during this period.”
The renewed controversy over Noem’s remarks comes as the Trump administration continues its aggressive immigration enforcement campaign. According to recent figures cited by the State Department, approximately 80,000 non-immigrant visas have been revoked this year, including 8,000 student visas, while deportations have reached record levels.
Despite growing criticism over data accuracy and transparency, Noem has stood by her statement, framing it as evidence that the administration’s strict border enforcement and employment restrictions are encouraging undocumented migrants to leave voluntarily. However, experts maintain that without verifiable tracking systems, any claim of precise “self-deportation” numbers remains speculative and politically motivated.
In reality, what Noem calls “self-deportations” is better understood as a statistical reduction in the estimated unauthorized immigrant population — one influenced by deportations, deaths, legal adjustments, and natural migration flows — rather than a quantifiable number of voluntary exits.
