Nearly four years after Vladimir Putin launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia continues to advance slowly but steadily, now controlling approximately 19 percent of Ukrainian territory, according to both Western intelligence and independent analysts. The conflict — Europe’s bloodiest since World War II — shows no sign of nearing a conclusion, even as diplomatic maneuvering intensifies.
On Sunday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov stated that Moscow remained open to dialogue with the United States, including a potential meeting with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, but insisted that Russia would not compromise on its fundamental conditions for ending the war. “Secretary of State Marco Rubio and I understand the need for regular communication. It is important for discussing the Ukrainian issue and promoting the bilateral agenda,” Lavrov told RIA Novosti, adding that both sides were “ready to hold face-to-face meetings when necessary.”
Lavrov’s remarks come as US President Donald Trump’s mediation efforts continue to falter. The American leader had attempted to position himself as the chief broker of a peace deal, but abruptly cancelled a proposed Budapest summit with Putin last month after Moscow rejected Washington’s draft terms. Reports in Western media suggested tensions between Lavrov and the Kremlin following the summit’s collapse, though Moscow dismissed these claims as “fictional speculation.”
According to Lavrov, the last meaningful understandings between Moscow and Washington were achieved during the August 15 summit in Anchorage, Alaska, where Putin and Trump informally discussed what came to be known as the “Anchorage Framework.” These understandings, Lavrov said, were “based on President Putin’s June 2024 proposals and ideas conveyed through Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff.”
Those proposals included Russia’s long-standing demands: that Ukraine permanently renounce NATO membership, withdraw its military from the four occupied provinces — Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia — and recognize them as part of Russia. Moscow also insists that the annexed Crimea, seized in 2014, is now an irreversible part of Russian territory.
At present, Russia controls the entirety of Luhansk, about 80 percent of Donetsk, and roughly three-quarters of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Its forces also occupy smaller parts of Kharkiv, Sumy, Mykolaiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. These areas, along with Crimea, are now described by the Kremlin as integral to the Russian Federation — a claim Ukraine and its Western allies reject outright.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asserted that Kyiv will not recognize any Russian territorial claims. While he has conceded that certain regions remain “de facto occupied,” he maintains that Ukraine’s sovereignty and borders must remain “de jure intact.” In his words, “I do not have a mandate to give away land that belongs to the Ukrainian people. Any such concession would only embolden further Russian aggression.”
Meanwhile, Russia’s stance appears unyielding. Lavrov said Moscow is “awaiting confirmation from the United States that the Anchorage agreements remain in force,” emphasizing that “no one questions the territorial integrity of Russia and the choice of the residents of Crimea, Donbas, and Novorossiya to reunite with their historical homeland.”
The term “Novorossiya” — literally “New Russia” — refers to a historical region encompassing parts of southeastern Ukraine that were incorporated into the Russian Empire in the 18th century. The term has been revived by pro-Kremlin factions seeking to legitimize Russia’s claims over the occupied territories.
A significant point of contention in ongoing diplomatic exchanges is the fate of over €210 billion in Russian sovereign assets frozen in European banks since the start of the war. Western governments have proposed redirecting those funds to finance Ukraine’s reconstruction and military needs. Lavrov warned that any such move would amount to “theft at the state level” and vowed that Russia would “retaliate decisively” if the assets were confiscated or repurposed.
In a related development, Lavrov confirmed that Washington has notified Moscow of its intention to review Putin’s offer to extend the New START Treaty’s limitations on nuclear arsenals beyond its current expiration date in February 2026. Despite rising tensions, both countries appear interested in maintaining at least some form of arms control dialogue — one of the last remaining pillars of post-Cold War stability.
As winter approaches, the front lines in Ukraine remain volatile. Russian forces have made small but steady gains along the Donbas front, tightening their grip around Avdiivka and Kupyansk, while Ukraine continues to target Russian logistics hubs and energy infrastructure with drone strikes deep inside Russian territory.
Diplomatic momentum, though limited, reflects a recognition on both sides that the war may soon enter a prolonged stalemate — one in which territory, influence, and international legitimacy are all being fiercely contested, but victory remains elusive.
