A developing low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal is steadily gaining strength, prompting meteorologists to warn that it may soon evolve into a significant cyclonic storm. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the system emerged after an upper-air cyclonic circulation formed over the central parts of the Strait of Malacca. By the morning of November 22, this circulation triggered the creation of a well-defined low-pressure area over the Strait of Malacca and the adjoining South Andaman Sea, marking the beginning of what could become a major weather event for several coastal regions of India.
The IMD has stated that the system is expected to move in a west-northwest direction over the coming days, gradually intensifying as it passes over warm ocean waters. Forecasts indicate that it is likely to strengthen into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 24, before undergoing further intensification over the southwest Bay of Bengal within the subsequent 48 hours. In addition to this system, meteorologists are monitoring the possibility of another low-pressure area developing near the Comorin region, Sri Lanka and the southwest Bay of Bengal around November 25, driven by a separate upper-air disturbance.
If the current system reaches cyclonic-storm intensity, it will be officially named Senyar, a name contributed by the United Arab Emirates, meaning “lion”. Cyclones in the North Indian Ocean basin are named only after they intensify beyond the deep depression stage, and Senyar is next on the IMD’s rotating list of designated names. With atmospheric and oceanic conditions currently favourable, weather agencies are closely watching the system’s evolution.
The IMD has issued strict warnings for fishermen, advising them to avoid venturing into the Andaman Sea and the southwest Bay of Bengal until November 25, due to the likelihood of rough seas and strong winds. The advisory for the southeast Bay of Bengal has been extended until November 28. Local administrations in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands have begun preparing for possible heavy rainfall and wind damage, particularly in low-lying and coastal areas, urging residents to follow official weather updates as conditions deteriorate.
The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are expected to be the first to feel the impact of the system. Rainfall intensity across the islands is projected to increase sharply, with the Nicobar region likely to receive heavy to very heavy rain on November 24 and 25. Winds in the area are forecast to range between 35 and 45 kmph, with gusts reaching up to 55 kmph. As the system intensifies, wind speeds may rise further to around 65 kmph by November 25.
As per the IMD’s latest bulletin, heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from November 23 to 28. Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the Mahe region are also likely to receive heavy rainfall from November 23 to 25. Additionally, Lakshadweep, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam are expected to receive significant rainfall on November 23 and 24, while Rayalaseema may experience heavy rain on November 23. Very heavy rainfall is specifically forecast for Tamil Nadu and Kerala on November 23 and 24.
Tamil Nadu has already begun experiencing widespread rainfall as the developing system strengthens. Several districts have issued warnings about thunderstorms accompanied by lightning and squally winds. The heavy rain has prompted district administrations to declare holidays for educational institutions across multiple regions. Schools are closed in Ramanathapuram, Thoothukudi, Kallakurichi, Mayiladuthurai, Thanjavur, Pudukottai and Trichy. Both schools and colleges are shut in Tenkasi and Tirunelveli, while schools have also declared holidays in Nagapattinam, Sivagangai and Virudhunagar districts.
With multiple weather systems developing simultaneously over the Indian Ocean region, authorities across southern India are preparing for several days of severe weather conditions. The IMD is expected to continue issuing regular updates as the low-pressure system deepens and moves across the Bay of Bengal, potentially bringing widespread rain and strong winds to several states.
