A renewed military confrontation between India and Pakistan in 2026 remains a real possibility, according to a recent assessment by a leading US-based think tank. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), in its annual “Conflicts to Watch in 2026” report, has warned that tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbours could escalate into armed conflict, driven largely by terrorism-related developments in Kashmir. The report categorises the risk as having a “moderate likelihood” and a “moderate impact” on American strategic interests.
The assessment comes against the backdrop of heightened hostilities earlier this year, when India and Pakistan engaged in a brief but intense four-day military confrontation in May. The flare-up followed India’s launch of Operation Sindoor, a series of precision strikes targeting terror infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The operation was carried out in response to a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, in which 22 civilians were killed. Although Pakistan later sought a ceasefire, the situation has remained volatile, with rhetoric on both sides continuing to signal deep mistrust.
Despite the ceasefire, security concerns persist. Indian intelligence agencies have reportedly identified more than 30 Pakistani terrorists operating in the Jammu region during the winter months, suggesting that the underlying drivers of conflict remain unresolved. At the same time, both countries have stepped up their military preparedness. India has cleared defence acquisitions worth nearly ₹79,000 crore, including drones, air-to-air missiles and precision-guided munitions. Pakistan, for its part, has reportedly initiated discussions with China and Turkey to procure new drones and air defence systems, aiming to address vulnerabilities exposed during Operation Sindoor.
The CFR report notes that the second Trump administration has attempted to reduce global conflict pressures, including in regions such as Ukraine, Gaza and Southeast Asia. However, it cautions that South Asia remains particularly fragile due to unresolved territorial disputes, militant activity and the absence of sustained diplomatic engagement between New Delhi and Islamabad. The think tank believes that even a limited escalation between India and Pakistan would carry regional consequences and draw international attention, given the nuclear dimension of their rivalry.
In addition to India-Pakistan tensions, the report highlights another potential flashpoint involving Pakistan—its deteriorating relationship with Afghanistan. The CFR assesses that there is a “moderate likelihood” of armed conflict between the two neighbours in 2026, though such a clash would likely have a limited impact on US interests. Tensions along the 2,600-kilometre Durand Line have risen sharply in recent months, with cross-border attacks and retaliatory fire reported at multiple locations.
In October, Pakistani and Afghan forces exchanged gunfire across several points along the border, marking one of the most serious escalations in years. Kabul accused Islamabad of carrying out airstrikes, while Pakistan claimed the Taliban government was sheltering militant groups responsible for attacks on its territory. Both sides reported the destruction of border posts, underscoring how quickly localized incidents could spiral into wider conflict.
Relations between the two countries have since worsened, with diplomatic ties strained and cross-border trade severely disrupted. Pakistan has borne the brunt of the economic fallout, while Afghanistan has increasingly sought alternative trade routes and partnerships with countries such as India, Iran and Turkey to reduce dependence on Islamabad.
The CFR’s annual report is designed to help American policymakers anticipate potential global flashpoints and allocate diplomatic and strategic resources accordingly. Conflicts are ranked across three tiers based on their likelihood and potential impact on US interests. Both the India-Pakistan and Pakistan-Afghanistan scenarios fall into the category of moderate likelihood, underscoring the fragile security environment in South Asia as 2026 approaches.
