Ahead of the US Fed's policy decision, investors are wary, as the Sensex and Nifty continue to lose


 Indian equity markets ended Tuesday’s session on a weak note as investors turned defensive ahead of crucial global policy events and uncertainty surrounding the pending US–India trade agreement. Both benchmark indices slipped for a second straight day, reflecting broad caution across sectors rather than any single trigger.

The S&P BSE Sensex declined by 436.41 points to close at 84,666.28, while the NSE Nifty50 fell 120.90 points to settle at 25,839.65. Market sentiment remained fragile throughout the day as participants avoided aggressive positions in the run-up to the US Federal Reserve policy announcement scheduled for Wednesday.

According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, the subdued opening—and inability to recover later—was driven largely by profit-booking and global uncertainty. He highlighted several factors weighing on domestic equities: a weakening rupee, persistent selling by foreign institutional investors, and the unresolved stance on the US–India trade negotiations. Nair noted that although investors largely expect the Fed to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut and the Bank of Japan to hike rates, forward-looking guidance for 2026 remains the most critical cue for global financial markets. He added that in the near term, commentary from central banks, currency fluctuations, and FII fund flow trends will shape market direction, while India’s strong fundamentals should help limit downside risks.

Despite the overall decline, a handful of heavyweight stocks managed to advance. On the Sensex, Eternal emerged as the top gainer with a rise of 2.26%, followed by Titan Company at 2.13%. Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone gained 1.07%, Bharat Electronics rose 0.82%, and Bajaj Finserv added 0.36%.

Losses, however, were sharp in several blue-chip counters, reinforcing the risk-off mood. Asian Paints suffered the steepest fall at 4.61%, marking the worst performance of the day. Tech Mahindra dropped 1.99%, HCL Technologies slipped 1.78%, Tata Steel fell 1.74%, and Maruti Suzuki declined 1.05%. Analysts described the selling in these names as a sign of heightened market discomfort rather than isolated sector-related concerns.

Ajit Mishra, Senior Vice-President of Research at Religare Broking, cautioned that the headline benchmarks are not fully reflecting the deeper correction visible in broader markets, where mid-cap and small-cap stocks have seen far more significant erosion. He emphasised that the Nifty testing the important support zone near 25,800 is a pivotal development. A sustained breach below this mark, he warned, could pull the index down further toward 25,650. Conversely, any upside attempt is likely to face strong resistance in the 26,000–26,200 range.

In the current landscape of heightened volatility and global dependence, Mishra advised traders to limit their position sizes and wait for clearer signs of market stability before deploying fresh capital.


 

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