With barely two months remaining before Bangladesh’s general elections, India has underlined the importance of conducting free, fair, inclusive and peaceful polls. Speaking at a weekly press briefing in New Delhi, Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said India supported elections in Bangladesh that reflected the will of the people and were carried out in a calm and participatory environment. His statement, however, came against a backdrop of growing concern over whether such conditions actually exist in Bangladesh today.
The credibility of elections in the country has steadily eroded over the past decade and a half. The last widely accepted free and fair election took place in 2008, when Khaleda Zia’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party secured 32.5 per cent of the vote, while its ally Jamaat-e-Islami won 4.28 per cent. Together with smaller partners, the BNP-led alliance accounted for nearly 40 per cent of the vote share. Since then, electoral processes have become increasingly contested and controversial.
In 2014, the BNP boycotted the polls after then prime minister Sheikh Hasina rejected demands for a neutral caretaker government, a system that had been in place since 1996 to ensure electoral fairness. The boycott led to an election marred by low participation and uncontested seats. In 2018, although the BNP returned to the electoral fray, Khaleda Zia was unable to contest after being jailed in corruption cases ahead of the vote.
A similar pattern repeated in the 2024 election, with Khaleda Zia again unable to participate due to her legal status, allowing Sheikh Hasina to retain power. However, the political landscape has since changed dramatically. Hasina has been removed from office and is now in exile, facing the prospect of a death sentence over allegations related to the violent suppression of last year’s student protests. Meanwhile, Khaleda Zia’s son, Tarique Rahman, has returned to Bangladesh after 17 years abroad, with multiple cases against him and his mother having been dropped following Hasina’s ouster.
Ahead of his return, Tarique Rahman told the Financial Times that those convicted in corruption cases should not be allowed to contest elections, sidestepping questions about the exclusion of the Awami League. With interim leader Muhammad Yunus banning the Awami League from participating in the upcoming polls, surveys now suggest the BNP is well positioned to emerge as the dominant political force.
Both Yunus and Tarique Rahman have repeatedly described the Awami League as a “fascist” organisation, reflecting the deep hostility that has long defined Bangladeshi politics. Tarique has also expressed interest in forging an alliance with the National Citizen Party, the student-led group that played a central role in the uprising that toppled Hasina’s government.
However, the NCP itself now finds its position uncertain. Once seen as the driving force behind the protest movement, the party has struggled to maintain cohesion and influence. Some of its leaders have voiced concerns about whether the upcoming elections will be genuinely free or fair. Nahid Islam, one of the party’s founders, told the Financial Times that Bangladesh’s electoral culture remains deeply problematic for new political forces.
Scepticism has also been voiced by established political figures. GM Quader, leader of the Jatiya Party and the country’s third-largest political outfit, wrote that the current government neither appears neutral nor capable of holding a credible election. He argued that the only viable solution would be the formation of a neutral caretaker government with participation from all major political parties.
Instead, the political environment appears increasingly exclusionary. Both the Awami League and its allies, along with the Jatiya Party, were left out of the Election Commission’s recent all-party dialogue. This has further deepened concerns that the process is being shaped without consensus or transparency.
Amid this backdrop, the Bangladesh Election Commission’s request for additional police protection for its leadership and offices across the country has raised fresh alarm. The move has been widely interpreted as a reflection of the tense political climate and the risks surrounding the electoral process. Taken together, these developments suggest that the promise of free and fair elections in Bangladesh remains deeply uncertain, even as the country edges closer to polling day.
