With just over a month remaining before Bangladesh’s promised general elections on February 12, political uncertainty is deepening as the National Citizen Party (NCP), seen as close to interim chief adviser Muhammad Yunus, struggles to define its path. Formed out of the student-led protests that forced Sheikh Hasina from power in 2024, the NCP had initially projected itself as a fresh political alternative to Bangladesh’s traditional power blocs — the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami. However, with elections drawing closer and its grassroots strength appearing limited, the party now finds itself caught between two competing alliances, raising questions about its unity and future direction.
Although the NCP was once promoted as a third force capable of reshaping Bangladeshi politics, recent reports suggest it has failed to convert online popularity into tangible organisational strength on the ground. As a result, the party is now exploring seat-sharing arrangements, either with the Islamist Jamaat-e-Islami or with the BNP. This political recalibration has exposed deep internal divisions. While one faction of the NCP favours aligning with Jamaat to ensure survival in the election, another group strongly opposes such a move and is instead pushing for an understanding with the BNP, especially after the return of BNP’s acting chairman Tarique Rahman to Bangladesh.
The internal strain became public following the resignation of Mir Arshadul Haque, a prominent leader of the anti-Jamaat faction and joint member secretary of the NCP. His departure, reported by The Daily Star, was widely interpreted as a sign of growing dissent within the party. Around the same time, reports emerged that the NCP was willing to contest as few as 30 seats in the 350-member Jatiya Sangsad under a possible alliance with Jamaat. This marked a significant climbdown from earlier ambitions and fuelled accusations that the party was abandoning its founding principles.
According to reports in Prothom Alo, discussions between the NCP and Jamaat have been ongoing, with the Islamist party reportedly unwilling to concede more than a limited number of seats. While some NCP leaders have publicly denied that any final agreement has been reached, others have admitted that talks are underway. Party spokesperson Mushfiq Us Saleheen confirmed discussions had taken place but declined to comment further, citing instructions from party leadership. Sources suggest the NCP initially demanded 50 seats but later lowered its expectations after facing resistance from Jamaat.
The party’s political confusion has been compounded by allegations that Jamaat offered financial incentives to secure NCP’s cooperation. Claims that Jamaat would provide up to 1.5 crore taka per constituency sparked outrage among former student leaders who had once backed the movement. One prominent activist described the situation as “the grave of youth politics,” reflecting the sense of betrayal felt by many who had believed the NCP would remain independent of both traditional parties.
At the same time, the NCP has quietly reopened communication channels with the BNP. This shift gained momentum following Tarique Rahman’s return to Bangladesh, which altered the political equation. While Jamaat has reportedly supported Yunus since August 2024, it has not formally clarified its final position regarding seat-sharing with the NCP, even as speculation continues to grow.
The NCP’s image as the “King’s Party” has further complicated matters. The label stems from widespread perceptions that Muhammad Yunus, as chief adviser of the interim government, has provided the party with institutional backing. Critics argue that Yunus gave NCP leaders privileged access to power, placed them in key reform bodies, and delayed elections to give the fledgling party time to establish itself. Although Yunus has denied favouritism, the perception has stuck, particularly as NCP leaders were seen playing an outsized role in governance despite lacking an electoral mandate.
This perception has now backfired. The same political forces that once tolerated the NCP as a Yunus-backed experiment are increasingly viewing it with suspicion. Former allies have begun distancing themselves, and the Democratic Reform Alliance — which included the NCP, the Amar Bangladesh Party, and the Bangladesh State Reform Movement — appears to be fraying. Leaders of allied groups have openly accused the NCP of violating the alliance’s founding promise to remain independent of both the BNP and Jamaat.
Abdul Kader, a prominent figure from the anti-Hasina movement, publicly warned that the NCP was on the verge of being absorbed into Jamaat’s political structure. He claimed that under the proposed arrangement, the NCP would refrain from contesting most constituencies and instead support Jamaat candidates. Such a move, he argued, would erase the party’s identity and betray the spirit of the student movement that gave birth to it.
All this is unfolding against a backdrop of worsening law and order in Bangladesh. Since Yunus assumed charge, political violence has surged. Human rights groups estimate that at least 184 people have been killed in mob violence in recent months, including incidents linked to religious extremism. The lynching of a Hindu garment worker over blasphemy allegations has further intensified fears about instability. Protests following the killing of radical leader Sharif Osman Hadi have also spiralled into riots and street violence.
With elections approaching, the political environment remains volatile. The interim government and the United Nations have urged restraint, but overstretched security forces are struggling to maintain order. In this tense atmosphere, the prospect of a split within the NCP adds another layer of uncertainty. What began as a student-led reform movement now stands at a crossroads, torn between ideological commitments and political survival. Whether the party fractures or manages to redefine itself in the coming weeks could play a decisive role in shaping Bangladesh’s already fragile electoral landscape.
