Recent developments in the Bay of Bengal have added a maritime dimension to the growing strain in India–Bangladesh relations, prompting questions about whether Dhaka is attempting to provoke New Delhi in the run-up to its national elections. The issue has gained urgency following an incident in which a Bangladesh Navy vessel allegedly struck an Indian fishing trawler, leading to the death of one fisherman and leaving several others missing. This has occurred alongside a noticeable rise in Bangladeshi fishing boats crossing into Indian waters.
While anti-India protests and rhetoric have intensified across Bangladesh on land, tensions at sea have also begun to escalate. Over the past two months, Indian security agencies have observed an unusual and sustained increase in the number of Bangladeshi fishing vessels venturing into Indian waters within the Bay of Bengal. The situation reached a critical point on December 15, when a Bangladeshi naval patrol vessel allegedly collided with an Indian fishing trawler carrying 16 fishermen near the international maritime boundary. The timing of the incident is significant, as Bangladesh is preparing for general elections scheduled for February next year, amid a surge in anti-India sentiment.
Since the fall of the Sheikh Hasina-led government, Bangladesh, under interim chief Muhammad Yunus, has appeared to assert itself more aggressively in the Bay of Bengal, an area India considers strategically sensitive. Yunus has previously described Bangladesh as the “guardian of the ocean for the entire region,” a statement that raised concerns in New Delhi about Dhaka’s growing maritime ambitions and posture.
The December 15 incident has heightened fears regarding the safety of Indian fishermen operating close to the maritime boundary. According to reports, the Bangladeshi navy vessel involved allegedly had its lights switched off, making it difficult for the Indian trawler to detect its presence during nighttime operations. The Indian trawler, identified as FB Parmita, capsized after the collision, throwing all 16 fishermen into the sea.
Rescue operations were launched several hours later, and by around 6 am, the Indian Coast Guard managed to rescue 11 fishermen. However, five fishermen remain missing. A report cited by The Times of India claimed that one fisherman was killed by a “spear-like object,” adding a disturbing dimension to the incident. Survivors have alleged that there was an attempt to kill all those on board the trawler, stating that the Bangladeshi vessel struck just as the fishermen were preparing to cast their nets. One of the victims, identified as Rajdul Ali Sheikh, was reportedly killed by a spear-like weapon.
Following a complaint by the Sundarban Marine Fishermen’s Workers Union, police have launched an investigation into the incident. At the same time, the Indian Coast Guard has stated that it is yet to confirm whether the Indian trawler had crossed the maritime boundary or whether the Bangladeshi naval vessel had entered Indian territorial waters. Bangladesh, for its part, has dismissed the reports as misleading, claiming that its patrol vessel was operating nearly 12 nautical miles away from the location of the incident.
The episode has sparked intense debate and speculation on social media, with several analysts and commentators describing the incident as a deliberate provocation. Some foreign affairs experts have suggested that the collision may have been pre-planned, aimed at drawing India into a confrontation or escalating tensions during a politically sensitive period.
These concerns are compounded by a broader pattern of maritime incursions. Indian authorities have reported a sharp rise in Bangladeshi fishing vessels entering deep into India’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the Bay of Bengal. On December 16, just a day after the trawler incident, the Indian Coast Guard intercepted two Bangladeshi fishing boats operating illegally in Indian waters. Around 500 kilograms of illegally caught fish were seized, and 35 crew members were detained.
This was not an isolated event. Over the past couple of months, India has apprehended at least eight Bangladeshi fishing vessels and detained approximately 170 crew members for violating maritime boundaries. The frequency and consistency of these incidents, occurring alongside escalating anti-India rhetoric in Bangladesh, have raised red flags among Indian intelligence and security agencies.
According to intelligence sources, anti-India groups in Bangladesh are portraying these detentions as harassment of poor fishermen by India. This narrative is reportedly being used to inflame public opinion, deepen resentment against New Delhi, and provoke diplomatic or strategic reactions.
The rise in such activities coincides closely with the announcement of Bangladesh’s election schedule. Under Muhammad Yunus, Bangladesh has shown signs of warming relations with Pakistan, while also allowing greater space for radical Islamist groups, including the once-banned Jamaat-e-Islami. Notably, the Pakistan Navy chief made a three-day visit to Bangladesh in November, marking the first high-level naval engagement between the two countries since 1971.
A parliamentary committee in India has reportedly warned that New Delhi may be facing its most serious strategic challenge linked to Bangladesh since the 1971 war, citing the growing influence of Pakistan and China in Dhaka’s political and strategic calculations.
Tensions escalated further on Friday when Bangladesh witnessed another wave of anti-India protests following the death of radical leader Sharif Osman Hadi, a known India critic, who was shot by unidentified assailants. Protests turned violent, with offices of leading newspapers such as The Daily Star and Prothom Alo being set on fire. Demonstrators also surrounded Indian diplomatic missions, raised anti-India slogans, and protested outside the residence of the Indian Assistant High Commissioner.
The unrest began earlier in the week when hundreds of protesters, marching under the banner “July Oikya” (July Unity), attempted to move toward the Indian High Commission in Dhaka. They chanted anti-India slogans and demanded the return of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, who fled to Delhi in August last year.
Inflammatory statements by student leaders have further fuelled tensions. Hasnat Abdullah, a prominent student leader, made extreme remarks at a rally, threatening violence against India and warning of isolating India’s northeastern states if Bangladesh were destabilised.
While the Indian government has not issued a detailed public response to the maritime incidents or the protests, it has summoned the Bangladeshi High Commissioner and lodged a strong diplomatic protest over the increasingly provocative statements and actions. The evolving situation, both on land and at sea, continues to be closely monitored amid concerns of deliberate escalation ahead of Bangladesh’s elections.
