The United States Department of Defense, in its 2025 Annual Report to Congress, has issued a cautionary assessment for India regarding China’s evolving regional strategy. The report draws attention to Beijing’s dual-track approach, under which it is simultaneously working to reduce tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) with India while intensifying military and strategic cooperation with Pakistan. This pattern, the Pentagon suggests, presents ongoing and complex challenges for India’s security environment and diplomatic calculations in South Asia.
The report offers a comprehensive overview of China’s national strategy, rapid military modernisation and expanding global influence. It examines the growing strength of the People’s Liberation Army across multiple domains, including land forces, air power, naval capabilities, space operations, cyber warfare and nuclear deterrence. According to the assessment, these developments have far-reaching implications for regional stability and pose questions for the existing rules-based international order, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
With respect to India, the Pentagon notes that New Delhi and Beijing reached an agreement in October 2024 to disengage from the remaining friction points along the LAC, marking a tactical easing of tensions after several years of standoff. However, the report argues that this move is less about genuine reconciliation and more about China’s desire to stabilise relations with India in order to limit New Delhi’s strategic closeness with the United States. The assessment points out that deep-seated mistrust between the two countries, shaped by past border clashes and China’s broader regional behaviour, continues to restrict the possibility of a meaningful reset in ties.
The report also underlines that Arunachal Pradesh remains a significant and unresolved flashpoint. It highlights China’s continued practice of referring to the Indian state as a “core interest,” placing it in the same category as Taiwan and the South China Sea. By doing so, Beijing is seen as directly challenging India’s sovereignty and signalling that territorial disputes with India remain a long-term strategic concern despite surface-level de-escalation along the border.
At the same time, the Pentagon flags serious concerns over China’s deepening military partnership with Pakistan. The report confirms that since 2020, China has supplied Pakistan with 36 J-10C fighter jets, substantially strengthening the Pakistan Air Force’s frontline combat capabilities. It also notes the continued co-production of JF-17 fighter aircraft, as well as Pakistan’s role as a major recipient of Chinese armed drones and naval platforms, reinforcing Beijing’s position as Islamabad’s primary defence partner.
Further emphasising the closeness of this relationship, the assessment states that China and Pakistan conducted joint counterterrorism exercises in December 2024, reflecting the operational depth of their defence cooperation. It also raises the possibility that Pakistan could host future Chinese military facilities, a development that would significantly expand the PLA’s operational reach in close proximity to India’s borders and alter the regional security balance.
On the issue of preparedness, the report highlights that China’s Western Theatre Command, which is responsible for contingencies involving India, carried out intensive high-altitude and low-oxygen military exercises throughout 2024. These drills, according to the Pentagon, indicate sustained preparation for mountain warfare scenarios, suggesting that China continues to plan for potential conflict even as diplomatic disengagement talks with India proceed.
Taken together, the findings of the Pentagon’s 100-page report convey a clear message that China’s apparent calm along the LAC should be viewed as tactical rather than transformational. While Beijing has chosen de-escalation to manage immediate tensions with India, it continues to challenge India’s territorial claims, particularly in Arunachal Pradesh, and remains Pakistan’s largest and most influential arms supplier. The assessment underscores the need for India to remain vigilant as China balances gestures of restraint with sustained strategic pressure in India’s immediate neighbourhood.
