Pakistan has once again voiced concern over what it describes as a worrying decline in water flows from rivers originating in India, this time focusing on the Jhelum and Neelum rivers. This comes only days after Islamabad flagged a sharp and unexpected reduction in the flow of the Chenab River. According to a report in Dawn, Pakistan has alleged that India’s practice of abruptly holding back and then releasing water from the Jhelum is a serious and alarming development, raising fresh tensions over shared river resources.
The latest concerns emerge against the backdrop of heightened strain between the two neighbours following India’s decision to suspend the 65-year-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in the aftermath of the April terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 people. Since then, water-sharing issues have increasingly become a flashpoint in the already fragile bilateral relationship.
Last week, Pakistan’s commissioner for Indus waters noted that inflows into the Mangla Dam on the Jhelum River had declined significantly. The Mangla Dam, located in Mirpur and roughly two hours’ drive from Islamabad, is a critical component of Pakistan’s irrigation and power infrastructure. Pakistani media reports claimed that the combined flow of the Jhelum and Neelum rivers dropped to around 3,000 cusecs, compared to earlier levels of more than 5,000 cusecs.
Islamabad has warned that the timing of this decline is particularly dangerous, as it coincides with the Rabi sowing season, a crucial phase in Pakistan’s agricultural calendar. Officials have claimed that such reduced water availability directly threatens food security and the livelihoods of millions in a country with a population of nearly 240 million people.
The Jhelum River is considered a vital artery for Pakistan’s agricultural economy. Its waters, regulated mainly through the Mangla Dam and the Rasul Barrage, support irrigation across vast tracts of farmland in Punjab province, including the fertile Chaj Doab region. Any disruption in its flow, officials argue, has immediate and far-reaching consequences for crop production.
A senior official from Pakistan’s irrigation department told Dawn that the situation was deeply troubling, noting that around 15 million acres out of an estimated 25 million acres of canal-irrigated farmland were currently receiving either reduced water supplies or none at all. Such shortages, he said, could severely impact agricultural output if the situation persists.
Despite these concerns, Pakistan has not yet formally raised the Jhelum issue with India. Commissioner for Indus waters Syed Mehr Ali Shah said that authorities were closely monitoring the river’s flow on a daily basis. For now, he added, Pakistan has written only to India regarding the Chenab River and would decide its next steps on the Jhelum after receiving a response.
India has so far not responded publicly to Pakistan’s allegations regarding either the Chenab or the Jhelum. In the past, Indian experts have pointed out that river flows can naturally vary due to seasonal changes, rainfall patterns and other environmental factors, rather than deliberate manipulation.
The current dispute follows Pakistan’s recent complaint about sudden fluctuations in the Chenab River’s flow. According to Geo News, Pakistan alleged that India released as much as 58,000 cusecs of water between December 7 and 8, only to drastically cut the flow shortly thereafter. Such abrupt changes, Pakistani officials said, caused serious concern downstream.
However, Pakistan later acknowledged that Chenab water levels had stabilised a few days after the incident. Even so, officials maintain that for a downstream country like Pakistan, whose agriculture and food security are heavily dependent on consistent river flows, sudden variations can have a major impact.
The Indus Waters Treaty, signed in 1960, governs the sharing of the Indus basin’s six major rivers between India and Pakistan. Under the agreement, the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum and Chenab — were allocated primarily to Pakistan, while the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas and Sutlej — were assigned to India.
For decades, the treaty endured despite wars, diplomatic crises and political upheavals between the two countries. That resilience ended in April 2025, when India effectively suspended the agreement following the Pahalgam attack, pushing bilateral relations to a historic low.
In response, Pakistan has warned that any attempt to permanently block or stop the flow of water into its territory would be viewed as an “act of war,” underscoring how central the water dispute has become to regional tensions.
