Russia has been forced to delay its ambitious plans to dramatically expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) production, pushing back key targets by several years as Western sanctions continue to weigh heavily on the country’s energy sector. The setback was confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who said the original timeline is no longer achievable under current restrictions.
Moscow had earlier aimed to lift its annual LNG output to around 100 million tonnes, a level that would have allowed Russia to command roughly one-fifth of the global LNG market by the early to mid-2030s. At present, however, Russia accounts for only about 8 per cent of global LNG supply, and sanctions linked to the Ukraine conflict have significantly disrupted progress toward that goal.
Speaking to state broadcaster Rossiya-24, Novak acknowledged that sanctions had directly affected Russia’s ability to expand capacity, particularly through restrictions on technology, financing and project development. “Our goal was to reach 100 million tonnes,” he said, adding that sanctions-related constraints have now pushed that objective back by several years, though he did not provide a revised timeline.
An updated government energy strategy reflects this more cautious outlook. According to the revised plan, Russia expects to produce between 90 and 105 million tonnes of LNG by 2030, with output rising further to around 110–130 million tonnes by 2036. These projections mark a notable adjustment from earlier expectations that envisioned faster growth and earlier dominance in global LNG markets.
Novak also said that Russia’s combined oil and gas condensate production is expected to remain broadly stable this year at around 516 million tonnes, or roughly 10.32 million barrels per day. This represents an improvement over earlier projections that had suggested a decline, indicating some resilience in overall hydrocarbon output despite mounting external pressures.
In terms of current performance, Russia’s LNG production increased by about 5.4 per cent in 2024 to 34.7 million tonnes. However, this still fell short of the government’s earlier forecast of 35.2 million tonnes, highlighting the challenges the sector continues to face.
Looking ahead, the competitive landscape is becoming tougher for Russia. The European Union has announced plans to ban imports of Russian LNG starting January 1, 2027, while the United States is rapidly expanding LNG exports to Europe. At the same time, Qatar remains a dominant supplier to Asian markets, intensifying competition in regions Russia had hoped to target.
Delays at key projects underline these difficulties. The Arctic LNG 2 project, which began production in December 2023, has struggled to scale up operations and managed to deliver its first cargo to buyers in China only in August this year. Another major project, Murmansk LNG—expected to become Russia’s largest LNG facility with a planned capacity of 20.4 million tonnes per year—has also faced postponements.
Taken together, these delays and constraints suggest that while Russia remains committed to expanding its LNG sector, sanctions, project bottlenecks and intensifying global competition have significantly slowed its path toward becoming a dominant player in the global LNG market.
