Russia is believed to be preparing the deployment of nuclear-capable hypersonic Oreshnik missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a move that could dramatically extend Moscow’s strike range across Europe and further heighten tensions with NATO. This assessment comes from two US-based researchers who analysed recent satellite imagery and concluded that the activity observed strongly suggests preparations for hosting the advanced missile system. Their findings broadly align with classified US intelligence assessments, according to a source familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously stated that Moscow intends to deploy Oreshnik missiles in Belarus, but until now the exact location had not been identified. The missile system, believed to have a range of up to 5,500 kilometres, would significantly expand Russia’s ability to target much of Europe from Belarusian territory. Analysts say such a deployment would reflect Moscow’s growing reliance on nuclear deterrence as a means of discouraging NATO countries from supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of striking deep inside Russia.
Neither the Russian Embassy in Washington nor the Belarusian Embassy provided immediate comment on the reports. However, Belarus’s state-run Belta news agency quoted Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin as saying the deployment would not alter the balance of power in Europe and described it as a response to what he called aggressive actions by the West. The White House declined to comment, and the CIA also refused to respond to questions regarding the findings.
The analysis was conducted by Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and Decker Eveleth of the CNA research organisation. Using satellite imagery from Planet Labs, the researchers identified infrastructure consistent with a Russian strategic missile base. They said they were about 90 percent confident that mobile Oreshnik launchers were being prepared at a former airfield near Krichev, approximately 190 miles east of Minsk and around 300 miles southwest of Moscow.
Russia test-fired a conventionally armed version of the Oreshnik missile in November 2024, with President Putin claiming the weapon could not be intercepted due to its speed, which he said exceeded Mach 10. Defence analysts believe the missile’s deployment in Belarus would significantly extend Russia’s strike capabilities across Europe. John Foreman, a defence expert at Chatham House and former British defence attaché in Moscow and Kyiv, said the move was likely intended to project power deeper into Europe and possibly counter the planned deployment of US conventional missiles, including the hypersonic Dark Eagle system, in Germany next year.
The potential deployment also comes at a sensitive moment, with the New START treaty — the last remaining nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia — set to expire soon. After a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in December 2024, Putin said the Oreshnik missiles could be stationed in Belarus in the second half of the year. Lukashenko later claimed that the first missiles had already arrived, though he did not disclose their exact location and suggested up to ten missiles could eventually be deployed.
The researchers noted, however, that the specific site they identified appears capable of accommodating only three launchers, raising the possibility that additional missiles may be stationed elsewhere in Belarus. Satellite imagery also revealed signs of rapid construction beginning in early August. One image from November showed what appeared to be a fortified rail transfer point, likely designed to move missiles and launchers securely by train. Another image showed a concrete platform at the end of a runway that was later covered with earth, which researchers believe may be a camouflaged launch position.
Not all experts agree that the deployment would dramatically alter the strategic balance. Pavel Podvig, a nuclear weapons specialist based in Geneva, said he was sceptical that placing Oreshnik missiles in Belarus would give Russia any substantial military advantage beyond political symbolism. He argued that from a Western perspective, missiles stationed in Belarus would not be fundamentally different from those based inside Russia.
Lewis, however, countered that the move carries strong political messaging rather than purely military value. He suggested that the deployment would be seen as highly provocative, comparing it to the hypothetical placement of US nuclear-armed cruise missiles in Germany. According to him, there is little military necessity for stationing the missiles in Belarus, making the decision largely political in nature.
The development comes as US President Donald Trump seeks to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, while Kyiv continues to press Western allies for longer-range weapons to strike Russian targets. Against this backdrop, the possible deployment of nuclear-capable missiles in Belarus underscores the increasingly high-stakes nature of the conflict and the growing risk of further escalation.
