India and France have stepped up discussions on a possible follow-on purchase of Rafale fighter jets, driven by growing concern within the Indian Air Force over its rapidly declining combat squadron strength, according to defence sources. The talks are expected to gather momentum ahead of French President Emmanuel Macron’s planned visit to India next month, which is being seen as a key political window to push the negotiations forward.
The Air Force has made a strong case for acquiring additional Rafale aircraft through a government-to-government arrangement with France. This proposal is being pitched as an interim solution under the long-delayed Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft programme, which aims to induct 114 modern fighter jets. Under the MRFA plan, a substantial portion of the aircraft is intended to be manufactured in India in partnership with a foreign original equipment manufacturer, but progress on the project has remained slow.
Defence sources said that while a final call will be taken only after the MRFA proposal is placed before the Defence Acquisition Council, the Air Force has clearly conveyed the urgency of inducting more Rafales to halt the steady erosion of its operational fighter strength. The Rafale, already in service and fully integrated into the Air Force’s combat ecosystem, is being viewed as the quickest and least risky option to plug immediate capability gaps.
The Air Force’s fighter squadron strength has dropped to around 29 squadrons, well below the sanctioned level of 42.5 squadrons considered necessary to address the possibility of a simultaneous threat from both China and Pakistan. Each squadron typically operates between 16 and 18 aircraft, making the current shortfall a serious operational concern. The situation deteriorated further after the retirement of the MiG-21 fleet last year, which removed a large number of aircraft from active service in a short span of time.
Officials said the seriousness of the shortfall became particularly evident during Operation Sindoor, which highlighted the strain on the Air Force’s ability to sustain air operations in a high-intensity or collusive conflict scenario. With the MRFA project stalled for nearly seven to eight years and estimated to cost over ₹1.2 lakh crore, the Rafale is increasingly seen as the most viable stop-gap measure to stabilise force levels.
Any expansion of the Rafale fleet is expected to be aligned closely with the government’s Make in India push. Defence sources indicated that a follow-on deal would likely include a strong domestic manufacturing component. India has already signed a contract for 24 Rafale-M aircraft for the Navy, which now serves as a useful reference point for pricing and contractual terms in discussions related to additional Air Force variants.
Industrial cooperation between Indian and French defence companies is also gaining pace. Tata Advanced Systems Limited has entered into a partnership with Dassault Aviation to manufacture key sections of the Rafale fuselage at a facility in Hyderabad. The plant is expected to begin deliveries by the 2028 financial year and could eventually scale up production to as many as 24 fuselages annually, catering to both Indian requirements and global supply chains.
Sources also pointed to parallel plans to establish an engine manufacturing facility in Hyderabad and a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul hub in Jewar, Uttar Pradesh. If these initiatives progress as envisioned, they could bring nearly 60 percent of the Rafale’s manufacturing value into India, significantly deepening domestic industrial participation in the programme.
Defence officials believe that the combination of urgent operational needs, growing industrial readiness and high-level political engagement has created a conducive environment for moving discussions forward. Although no formal announcement is expected immediately, Rafale-related issues are likely to feature prominently during President Macron’s visit.
Any final agreement would still require multiple layers of approval, including clearance from the Defence Acquisition Council, completion of cost negotiations and endorsement by the Cabinet Committee on Security.
Pressure on the Air Force has also increased due to delays in the induction of the indigenous Light Combat Aircraft Tejas Mk1A. The platform was expected to play a central role in rebuilding squadron strength, but deliveries have slipped because of supply chain disruptions, engine availability issues and challenges in ramping up production. While the Air Force has ordered 83 Mk1A jets and received clearance for an additional 97, revised timelines have widened the gap created by the retirement of older aircraft.
The Air Force leadership has publicly expressed concern over these delays, warning that setbacks in the Tejas Mk1A programme have intensified reliance on interim solutions such as additional Rafale inductions to maintain combat readiness and operational credibility.
