As tensions continue to escalate in and around Iran, a growing number of people across the world are not merely watching events unfold but actively wagering on them. From questions about whether the United States will launch a military strike to speculation over the possible exit of Iran’s Supreme Leader, global prediction markets are turning geopolitical uncertainty into high-stakes financial bets. In these digital arenas, international crises are no longer just analysed or debated — they are priced, traded, and monetised.
An analysis by India Today of activity across at least three major global prediction platforms reveals a sharp rise in Iran-focused betting. This surge highlights a broader trend in which geopolitical instability is increasingly being capitalised on through online markets. Instead of placing money on traditional assets such as equities, commodities, or currencies, traders are betting on outcomes like war, regime change, and leadership transitions.
Iran’s ongoing internal unrest, combined with mounting regional and international tensions, has made it one of the most actively traded geopolitical subjects on prediction gambling platforms. The country’s political future and the possibility of military escalation have become central themes for speculators seeking to profit from uncertainty.
Data from prediction market platform Polymarket shows that one of the most heavily traded questions at present is whether the United States will carry out a military strike against Iran within January. Contracts tied to potential US action before specific dates, such as January 18 and January 23, have together attracted trading volumes exceeding $40 million over the past month. This has made the question of a US strike one of the most popular political bets currently available on the platform.
Other platforms, including Kalshi and Manifold, are also hosting a wide array of Iran-related event contracts. These platforms allow users to trade on clearly defined yes-or-no outcomes, and they currently feature dozens of bets linked to Iran’s protests, regional conflict risks, and political stability. For many traders, these contracts represent an opportunity to financially engage with unfolding global crises.
Another major focus of speculation is the future of Iran’s leadership. A contract asking whether Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will step down as Supreme Leader by January 31 has drawn more than $28 million in trading volume. At present, the market assigns roughly a 21 per cent probability to Khamenei exiting power before the end of the month, a figure that fluctuates frequently as news breaks and trading activity shifts.
Beyond leadership change, traders are also betting on scenarios such as Israeli military action against Iran, further escalation involving the US, or the timing and intensity of potential attacks relative to the ongoing protests. The breadth and scale of these wagers have positioned Iran as one of the most closely watched and heavily traded geopolitical flashpoints in the prediction market ecosystem.
Prediction markets are built on the idea that collective judgement can be translated into probability through trading behaviour. Prices move as participants buy and sell contracts, reflecting the market’s evolving assessment of how likely a particular outcome is to occur. Supporters argue that such markets can aggregate information efficiently and offer insight into real-world risks.
However, critics warn that these platforms are far from neutral. They argue that prediction markets can be distorted by sensational news cycles, coordinated trading by large players, and unverified or misleading narratives circulating on social media. In volatile geopolitical situations like Iran’s, these dynamics raise questions about whether such markets reflect informed judgement or simply amplify speculation driven by fear, rumours, and rapidly shifting headlines.
