Iranian state television has released the first official death toll from the nationwide protests that erupted in late December, stating that 3,117 people were killed during the unrest, while the country’s foreign minister issued his strongest warning yet to the United States. The announcement came amid intensifying arrests inside Iran, sharply disputed casualty figures from rights groups, and visible signs of expanding American military activity moving toward the Middle East.
According to a statement aired Wednesday night on state TV and attributed to the Martyrs Foundation, 2,427 of those killed since demonstrations began on December 28 were civilians and members of the security forces. The authorities did not clarify the identities or circumstances surrounding the remaining deaths. The disclosure marks the first time Iranian officials have publicly acknowledged the scale of fatalities linked to the crackdown.
Human rights organisations have reported significantly higher numbers. The US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency has put the death toll at 4,560, citing a long-established verification network inside Iran. The group has previously been regarded as a reliable source during earlier episodes of unrest, as it cross-checks each reported fatality with multiple sources on the ground.
The publication of the figures coincided with pointed remarks by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, whose invitation to the World Economic Forum in Davos was withdrawn following the killings. His comments came as a US aircraft carrier strike group began moving westward from Asia, and as American fighter jets and missile systems were reported to be repositioning across the Middle East after a major US military operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolás Maduro.
Araghchi issued his warning in an opinion column published in The Wall Street Journal, where he argued that the most violent phase of the protests lasted less than 72 hours and again blamed armed demonstrators for the bloodshed. He did not address widely circulated videos that appear to show Iranian security forces firing live ammunition at largely unarmed protesters, footage that surfaced despite a sweeping internet shutdown.
“Unlike the restraint Iran showed in June 2025, our powerful armed forces have no qualms about firing back with everything we have if we come under renewed attack,” Araghchi wrote, referring to the brief war launched by Israel against Iran earlier that year. He added that while he opposed war as both a diplomat and a veteran, the Islamic Republic would respond forcefully if attacked again.
He further warned that any full-scale confrontation would be prolonged and devastating, extending far beyond the region. According to Araghchi, such a conflict would engulf neighbouring countries and disrupt global stability, directly affecting ordinary people well outside the Middle East.
The foreign minister’s remarks were widely interpreted as a reference to Iran’s missile capabilities. During the earlier conflict with Israel, Tehran relied primarily on ballistic missiles while leaving much of its short- and medium-range arsenal unused. Analysts say those missiles could be deployed against US military bases and interests across the Persian Gulf, where restrictions have already been placed on the movement of American diplomats in countries such as Kuwait and Qatar.
Diplomats from several Gulf Arab states have reportedly urged US President Donald Trump to avoid military action, warning that an attack on Iran could destabilise the entire region. Last week, Iran abruptly closed its airspace, a move widely interpreted as preparation for a possible strike.
Maritime tracking data showed that the USS Abraham Lincoln, which had been operating in the South China Sea, passed through the Strait of Malacca and entered the Indian Ocean. A US Navy official, speaking anonymously, confirmed that the carrier and three accompanying destroyers were heading west, placing the strike group only days away from the Middle East, even though officials stopped short of confirming its final destination.
At the same time, the US military released images showing F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets arriving in the region and the redeployment of a HIMARS missile system. The system, which proved highly effective for Ukraine following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, has heightened concerns in Tehran about Washington’s intentions.
The reported death toll now exceeds that of any other protest movement in Iran in decades, drawing comparisons with the turmoil surrounding the 1979 revolution that led to the creation of the Islamic Republic. Although street protests have subsided in recent days, observers fear the number of fatalities could rise further as information continues to trickle out under an ongoing internet blackout imposed since January 8.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei acknowledged the scale of the bloodshed over the weekend, saying “several thousand” people had been killed and directly blaming the United States. His remarks marked the first time a senior Iranian leader publicly hinted at the magnitude of the casualties.
According to the Human Rights Activists News Agency, nearly 26,500 people have been arrested in connection with the protests. Statements from Iranian officials have fuelled fears that some detainees could face execution, raising alarm among international observers given Iran’s record as one of the world’s leading executioners. The killing of protesters and the potential use of the death penalty have been described by Trump as key red lines in the escalating standoff.
Meanwhile, tensions spilled beyond Iran’s borders after the National Army of Kurdistan, the armed wing of the Kurdistan Freedom Party (PAK), claimed that Iranian forces had attacked one of its bases near Irbil in northern Iraq. The group said one of its fighters was killed and released mobile phone footage showing a fire burning before dawn. Iranian authorities have not confirmed the strike, which would mark Tehran’s first foreign military operation since the protests began.
Several Iranian Kurdish dissident and separatist groups have long operated from Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, where their presence has repeatedly strained relations between Baghdad and Tehran. Some of these groups claim to have carried out attacks inside Iran during the crackdown, reports that have also appeared in Iran’s semi-official media, adding another volatile layer to an already explosive regional situation.
