US President Donald Trump has indicated that he may allow the New START nuclear arms control treaty with Russia to expire, declining to commit to any voluntary extension of limits on strategic nuclear weapons and signalling a potential shift in US arms control policy.
In remarks released on Thursday from an interview with the New York Times, Trump said he was unconcerned about the treaty’s expiration scheduled for February 5. He suggested that if the agreement lapses, the United States would pursue a new and, in his view, superior arrangement. His comments suggest little urgency within his administration to preserve the final remaining treaty that restricts the nuclear arsenals of Washington and Moscow.
The prospect of the treaty ending without a replacement has alarmed arms control experts, who warn that both countries could rapidly expand their deployment of nuclear warheads and delivery systems beyond the existing ceilings. Such a move, they argue, would accelerate the breakdown of the global arms control framework that has shaped nuclear restraint for decades.
Former senior arms control officials have cautioned that there are influential voices within the Trump administration who favour abandoning the treaty’s restrictions altogether. They say this could trigger a renewed arms race between the world’s two largest nuclear powers at a time of heightened geopolitical tension.
The White House has not clarified whether it intends to accept a proposal made by Russian President Vladimir Putin last September, under which both countries would voluntarily continue observing the treaty’s deployment limits even after its formal expiration. The lack of a clear response has added to uncertainty over Washington’s intentions.
Earlier in the year, Trump had expressed interest in maintaining the treaty’s numerical limits beyond its expiry date, but his latest comments appear to reflect a harder stance. Under New START, both the United States and Russia are limited to deploying a maximum of 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads on no more than 700 delivery systems, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarines and heavy bombers.
The treaty, signed in 2010, cannot be extended again. It was designed with a single extension option, which was exercised in 2021 when Russia and the United States agreed to roll it over for five years. That extension expires in early 2026, leaving no legal mechanism to prolong the agreement.
Trump has also reiterated his view that any future arms control framework should include China, whose nuclear capabilities are expanding rapidly. He argued that a new agreement should involve additional major powers rather than remaining limited to Washington and Moscow.
China has consistently rejected such proposals, maintaining that its nuclear arsenal is far smaller than those of the United States and Russia and that it should not be bound by the same constraints. Recent assessments by the Pentagon suggest that China is significantly expanding its intercontinental ballistic missile infrastructure and has shown little interest in participating in arms control negotiations.
If New START expires without a successor or voluntary restraint, analysts warn it would mark the first time in decades that the United States and Russia operate without any binding limits on their strategic nuclear forces, raising the risk of escalation and instability in the global security environment.
