In the aftermath of the United States capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, geopolitical analyst Ian Bremmer has voiced doubts about whether the move will deliver lasting strategic gains for Washington. He cautioned that any short-term advantages secured under President Donald Trump could easily be reversed once Trump leaves office in 2029, given the inherently temporary nature of American presidencies.
Bremmer drew a contrast between the United States and countries such as India, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi has remained in power for more than a decade due to sustained popular support. In the US system, he said, leadership changes every four years often lead to abrupt policy reversals, limiting the long-term impact of major geopolitical decisions. As a result, initiatives launched by one administration can be dismantled by the next, creating uncertainty for both allies and investors.
Speaking exclusively to India Today TV, Bremmer argued that Trump’s successor could undo many of his actions, just as Trump himself reversed policies introduced by his predecessor. He noted that this lack of continuity makes it harder for US foreign policy moves to generate durable outcomes, especially in complex regions like Latin America.
Bremmer pointed out that unlike China, Russia or even India, where leadership continuity allows policies to mature over time, the United States faces structural constraints because of frequent electoral cycles. According to him, this repeated reset of priorities slows progress and weakens confidence in long-term commitments.
“This isn’t Xi Jinping, and it’s not even Modi, who has now governed India for over ten years with strong public backing in a democratic system,” Bremmer said. “This is Trump, who is relatively unpopular, around 80 years old, and will be out of office in about three years. That reality matters when assessing how durable his policies will be.”
Looking ahead, Bremmer said the true test of whether Washington benefits from Venezuela’s vast oil reserves will depend on several factors, including global oil prices, political stability within Venezuela, and how future US administrations approach Caracas after Trump’s term ends.
He noted that Venezuela’s oil output has collapsed sharply over the years, falling to around 800,000 barrels per day from nearly 3 million barrels per day at its peak. Restoring production to meaningful levels, he explained, would require not only technical investment but also a stable political environment that reassures international energy companies.
“To raise production, you need political stability and an economic environment that oil companies actually trust,” Bremmer said. “Companies need confidence that their investments will be protected and profitable, especially when global energy prices are relatively low.”
He added that oil companies operate on investment timelines that stretch far beyond the tenure of any single US president. For them, the key question is whether the political system being supported today will still be in place after Trump exits the White House.
“You also need a belief that the political framework Trump is backing will survive beyond 2029,” Bremmer said. “Without that confidence, it’s very difficult to attract the kind of long-term capital needed to revive Venezuela’s oil sector.”
