After a turbulent 2025 marked by abrupt policy shifts and administrative uncertainty, 2026 is shaping up to be an even more challenging year for H-1B visa holders and prospective applicants. Under President Donald Trump’s second term, the US immigration landscape continues to harden, with new rules and proposals aimed at narrowing legal immigration pathways, tightening eligibility requirements and significantly increasing the cost of employing foreign professionals. The difficulties that began soon after Trump returned to the White House are expected not only to persist but to intensify in the coming year.
The policy direction became clear as visa cancellations surged dramatically in 2025. Around 100,000 visas were revoked last year, compared to roughly 40,000 in 2024, the final year of the Biden administration. Of these, nearly 10,000 involved study and work visas, underscoring the growing scrutiny faced by international students and skilled workers. Although the administration has occasionally spoken in favour of high-skilled immigration, a series of proclamations and regulatory changes point to a future defined by greater uncertainty for H-1B workers, international graduates and the employers who rely on them.
A presidential proclamation issued in mid-December signalled a broader intent to curb legal migration, with provisions that could indirectly affect H-1B holders by increasing background checks, reopening previously approved cases for review and subjecting applications to more rigorous scrutiny. Additional regulations expected in 2026 are likely to further constrain employers’ ability to recruit foreign talent, while also increasing compliance obligations for universities and companies that depend heavily on international professionals.
One of the most consequential developments is the push to sharply raise the cost of sponsoring H-1B visas. A proposed annual fee of $100,000 per new H-1B worker, which is currently being contested in court, would represent a dramatic financial burden for employers and could discourage many from participating in the programme altogether. Alongside this proposed fee hike, the administration is advancing other measures designed to make the visa programme more restrictive and expensive, reinforcing a broader strategy of reducing the inflow of foreign workers through economic pressure rather than outright bans.
At the same time, the government has finalised plans to fundamentally restructure the H-1B lottery system starting in 2026. Instead of the traditional random selection process, applications will be weighted based on Department of Labour wage levels. This change will prioritise higher-paid, senior positions while sharply reducing the chances for entry-level and lower-wage applicants. Analysts note that this shift will disproportionately affect early-career professionals and recent graduates, many of whom are international students transitioning from US universities into the workforce.
Data cited by policy analysts indicates that the odds for the highest-paid applicants could more than double under the new system, while those at the lowest wage levels—who make up the overwhelming majority of H-1B registrants—could see their chances of selection fall to extremely low levels. This restructuring effectively favours experience and seniority over potential, fundamentally altering the character of the programme and limiting opportunities for young professionals to enter the US job market.
For international students, the outlook is particularly bleak. Historically, most student-linked H-1B applications have fallen into the lower wage categories, placing them at a severe disadvantage under the weighted lottery system. Proposed restrictions on Optional Practical Training and STEM OPT programmes would further shrink the window during which foreign graduates can gain US work experience, making it harder for them to qualify for employer sponsorship in the first place. Additional proposals, such as fixed time limits on student visas and stricter oversight of universities, could further reduce the ability of international students to remain in the US long enough to transition into skilled employment.
The administration’s approach has also been marked by mixed messaging. President Trump has repeatedly assured business leaders and technology executives that he supports the H-1B programme, arguing that the US lacks sufficient domestic talent in highly specialised fields. He has described the visa as essential for economic competitiveness and has pointed to his own past use of the programme as proof of its value. However, these public statements have had little impact on actual policy outcomes.
According to multiple reports, immigration decision-making within the administration is largely driven by senior advisers who are deeply committed to reducing both legal and illegal immigration. Measures such as steep fee increases, tighter eligibility standards and the overhaul of the lottery system suggest that limiting foreign professional inflows remains a core objective, regardless of the president’s occasional pro-H-1B rhetoric.
The fate of many of these policies now rests with the US judiciary. Several lawsuits have been filed challenging the proposed fee hikes and regulatory changes, with business groups, universities and state governments arguing that the administration has exceeded its authority and bypassed congressional oversight. Some states have warned that exorbitant fees could worsen labour shortages in critical sectors such as education, healthcare and public services, where foreign professionals play an essential role.
Court rulings on these cases could have far-reaching implications, determining how much power the executive branch has to reshape employment-based immigration through proclamations and administrative rules. Legal challenges to the weighted lottery system may also decide whether experience-based selection replaces random allocation as early as the next filing cycle.
For many H-1B holders, 2025 was already marked by chaos and disruption. New rules, including changes to visa stamping procedures and expanded screening requirements, led to massive delays at US consulates, particularly in India. Interview dates were pushed back by months or even years, leaving some professionals stranded abroad, separated from their jobs and families. Employers and immigration lawyers were forced to issue advisories warning H-1B workers against international travel due to the risk of being unable to return.
Against this backdrop, 2026 appears set to be even more uncertain. Policies that favour seniority over early-career talent, combined with potentially prohibitive financial barriers, threaten to narrow the H-1B pathway further. This comes despite continued reliance by US employers on foreign professionals across industries such as technology, engineering and healthcare. Unless courts intervene to block or roll back some of these measures, H-1B applicants and holders are likely to face another year defined by instability, limited options and persistent uncertainty.
