Pakistan’s ongoing water challenges are expected to deepen as India moves toward completing the Shahpur Kandi barrage on the Ravi River, a development that will significantly reduce the surplus water that previously flowed into Pakistan. With the project set to become operational ahead of the summer season, India will begin retaining water that earlier crossed the border due to inadequate storage and regulation infrastructure on its side. The move represents a major shift in water utilisation within the eastern rivers of the Indus basin and is likely to further strain Pakistan’s already fragile water situation.
The announcement was made by Jammu and Kashmir minister Javed Ahmed Rana, who stated that excess water reaching Pakistan would now be stopped and redirected for domestic use, particularly to support irrigation in drought-prone districts such as Kathua and Samba. For decades, surplus water from the Ravi flowed downstream into Pakistan through Madhopur because India lacked sufficient infrastructure to fully harness its allocated share. With the Shahpur Kandi barrage nearing completion, this long-standing flow pattern is expected to change from April onward, allowing India to regulate and store the river’s waters more effectively.
The development comes at a time of heightened tensions over water-sharing arrangements following India’s suspension of cooperation under the Indus Waters Treaty. Under the 1960 agreement brokered by the World Bank, India has unrestricted rights over the eastern rivers — Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej — while Pakistan controls the western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. Since the Ravi falls within India’s share, the project does not technically violate treaty provisions, even though Pakistan had benefited for years from surplus flows that India could not previously utilise.
For Pakistan, the reduced downstream discharge could carry significant economic and social consequences. Nearly 80 percent of the country’s agricultural land depends on the Indus river system, making water availability crucial for crop production and food security. Agriculture contributes roughly one-quarter of Pakistan’s GDP, meaning disruptions in water supply could affect rural livelihoods, agricultural output, and overall economic stability. Major cities such as Lahore and Multan also rely heavily on Indus basin waters for urban consumption, increasing concerns over long-term water stress.
The Shahpur Kandi barrage itself has faced decades of delays since it was first proposed in 1979 alongside the Ranjit Sagar dam project. Although the Ranjit Sagar dam was completed in 2001, disputes between Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir repeatedly stalled construction of the downstream barrage. Declared a national project in 2008, work resumed in 2013 but again halted due to inter-state disagreements before finally gaining momentum in 2018 after the central government brokered a settlement and provided financial assistance. The project is now set for completion after nearly 46 years, and once operational, it is expected to irrigate more than 32,000 hectares of land while benefiting additional agricultural areas in Punjab.
The barrage forms part of a broader push by India to maximise utilisation of river waters within its territory. Parallel efforts include accelerated hydropower projects on the Chenab River and plans to revive the Wular barrage on the Jhelum River to improve storage and regulation capacity. These initiatives reflect a strategic shift toward fully exercising India’s water rights and strengthening domestic infrastructure rather than allowing unused flows to continue downstream.
Pakistan has raised objections at international forums, including approaching arbitration bodies over what it describes as the weaponisation of water resources, while India has rejected such claims and maintained that its actions remain within legal entitlements. Overall, the completion of the Shahpur Kandi barrage signals a significant change in regional water dynamics, with India focusing on internal irrigation and development needs while Pakistan faces growing pressure on its water-dependent agricultural and urban systems.
